Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation
The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa be...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Elsevier
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/72586 |
| _version_ | 1855533451866800128 |
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| author | Schroth, Götz Läderach, Peter R.D. Martínez Valle, Armando Isaac Bunn, Christian Jassogne, Laurence T.P. |
| author_browse | Bunn, Christian Jassogne, Laurence T.P. Läderach, Peter R.D. Martínez Valle, Armando Isaac Schroth, Götz |
| author_facet | Schroth, Götz Läderach, Peter R.D. Martínez Valle, Armando Isaac Bunn, Christian Jassogne, Laurence T.P. |
| author_sort | Schroth, Götz |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace72586 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace725862025-04-17T08:26:39Z Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation Schroth, Götz Läderach, Peter R.D. Martínez Valle, Armando Isaac Bunn, Christian Jassogne, Laurence T.P. climate change adaptation deforestation drought stress temperature theobroma cacao adaptación al cambio climático deforestación estrés de sequia temperatura The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. 2016-06 2016-03-11T15:23:12Z 2016-03-11T15:23:12Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/72586 en Open Access Elsevier Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence. 2016. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation . Science of the Total Environment 556(15): 231-243. |
| spellingShingle | climate change adaptation deforestation drought stress temperature theobroma cacao adaptación al cambio climático deforestación estrés de sequia temperatura Schroth, Götz Läderach, Peter R.D. Martínez Valle, Armando Isaac Bunn, Christian Jassogne, Laurence T.P. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation |
| title | Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation |
| title_full | Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation |
| title_fullStr | Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation |
| title_short | Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation |
| title_sort | vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in west africa patterns opportunities and limits to adaptation |
| topic | climate change adaptation deforestation drought stress temperature theobroma cacao adaptación al cambio climático deforestación estrés de sequia temperatura |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/72586 |
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