Multiclass classification of agro-ecological zones for arabica Coffee: an improved understanding of the impacts of climate change
Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize re...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2015
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/68800 |
| _version_ | 1855528383810633728 |
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| author | Bunn, Christian Läderach, Peter R.D. Pérez Jiménez, Juan Guillermo Montagnon, Christophe Schilling, Timothy |
| author_browse | Bunn, Christian Läderach, Peter R.D. Montagnon, Christophe Pérez Jiménez, Juan Guillermo Schilling, Timothy |
| author_facet | Bunn, Christian Läderach, Peter R.D. Pérez Jiménez, Juan Guillermo Montagnon, Christophe Schilling, Timothy |
| author_sort | Bunn, Christian |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace68800 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science |
| publisherStr | Public Library of Science |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace688002025-03-13T09:44:26Z Multiclass classification of agro-ecological zones for arabica Coffee: an improved understanding of the impacts of climate change 10(10): e0140490 Bunn, Christian Läderach, Peter R.D. Pérez Jiménez, Juan Guillermo Montagnon, Christophe Schilling, Timothy seasons meteorology Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems. 2015-10-27 2015-10-29T20:20:54Z 2015-10-29T20:20:54Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/68800 en Open Access Public Library of Science Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy. 2015. Multiclass classification of agro-ecological zones for arabica Coffee: an improved understanding of the impacts of climate change. PLoS One 10(10): e0140490. |
| spellingShingle | seasons meteorology Bunn, Christian Läderach, Peter R.D. Pérez Jiménez, Juan Guillermo Montagnon, Christophe Schilling, Timothy Multiclass classification of agro-ecological zones for arabica Coffee: an improved understanding of the impacts of climate change |
| title | Multiclass classification of agro-ecological zones for arabica Coffee: an improved understanding of the impacts of climate change |
| title_full | Multiclass classification of agro-ecological zones for arabica Coffee: an improved understanding of the impacts of climate change |
| title_fullStr | Multiclass classification of agro-ecological zones for arabica Coffee: an improved understanding of the impacts of climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multiclass classification of agro-ecological zones for arabica Coffee: an improved understanding of the impacts of climate change |
| title_short | Multiclass classification of agro-ecological zones for arabica Coffee: an improved understanding of the impacts of climate change |
| title_sort | multiclass classification of agro ecological zones for arabica coffee an improved understanding of the impacts of climate change |
| topic | seasons meteorology |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/68800 |
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