Assessment of the severity and impact of drought spells on rainfed cereals in Morocco

Drought is a major factor affecting cereal production in most the rainfed areas of West Asia and North Africa. Recen increases in drought frequency in Morocco have resulted in the yields of field crops being extremely variable and generally low. The objective of this study is to assess drought sever...

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Main Authors: Karrou M, Oweis, Theib Y.
Format: Journal Article
Language:Inglés
Published: Academic Journals 2014
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/68186
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author Karrou M
Oweis, Theib Y.
author_browse Karrou M
Oweis, Theib Y.
author_facet Karrou M
Oweis, Theib Y.
author_sort Karrou M
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Drought is a major factor affecting cereal production in most the rainfed areas of West Asia and North Africa. Recen increases in drought frequency in Morocco have resulted in the yields of field crops being extremely variable and generally low. The objective of this study is to assess drought severity in the main cereal production areas of Morocco and to evaluate its effects on grain yield. Also the study seeks to evaluate if the standarized precipitation index (SPI) may be used as a tool to predict drought and crop yield early in the season. Data analysis showed that for the period 1988 to 2008, yields fluctuated from 150 to 3000 kg/ha with a coefficient of variation of between 30 anf 50% in the north and 60 and 70% in the south. Based on the SPI, the regions studied experienced, on average, a drought once every 2.6 years. However, very severe droughts were observed only once in 7 years. The SPIs computed for the periods October to June and January to March were highly correlated. Moreover, there was a high positive correlation between the yield and the SPI calculated for the period January to March. The coefficients of determination varied between 0.28 and 0.69 for barley. It is concluded that soil moisture levels during the tillering and stem elongation periods of the cereals are the most important determinations of yield. Hence an SPI computed for the period January to March can be used to predict drought severity and yields early in the season.
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spelling CGSpace681862025-02-19T13:42:13Z Assessment of the severity and impact of drought spells on rainfed cereals in Morocco Karrou M Oweis, Theib Y. climate change agriculture food security rain drought forecasting Drought is a major factor affecting cereal production in most the rainfed areas of West Asia and North Africa. Recen increases in drought frequency in Morocco have resulted in the yields of field crops being extremely variable and generally low. The objective of this study is to assess drought severity in the main cereal production areas of Morocco and to evaluate its effects on grain yield. Also the study seeks to evaluate if the standarized precipitation index (SPI) may be used as a tool to predict drought and crop yield early in the season. Data analysis showed that for the period 1988 to 2008, yields fluctuated from 150 to 3000 kg/ha with a coefficient of variation of between 30 anf 50% in the north and 60 and 70% in the south. Based on the SPI, the regions studied experienced, on average, a drought once every 2.6 years. However, very severe droughts were observed only once in 7 years. The SPIs computed for the periods October to June and January to March were highly correlated. Moreover, there was a high positive correlation between the yield and the SPI calculated for the period January to March. The coefficients of determination varied between 0.28 and 0.69 for barley. It is concluded that soil moisture levels during the tillering and stem elongation periods of the cereals are the most important determinations of yield. Hence an SPI computed for the period January to March can be used to predict drought severity and yields early in the season. 2014-11-04 2015-09-16T17:00:34Z 2015-09-16T17:00:34Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/68186 en Open Access application/pdf Academic Journals Karrou M, Oweis T. 2014. Assessment of the severity and impact of drought spells on rainfed cereals in Morocco. African Journal of Agricultural Research 9(49):3519-3530.
spellingShingle climate change
agriculture
food security
rain
drought
forecasting
Karrou M
Oweis, Theib Y.
Assessment of the severity and impact of drought spells on rainfed cereals in Morocco
title Assessment of the severity and impact of drought spells on rainfed cereals in Morocco
title_full Assessment of the severity and impact of drought spells on rainfed cereals in Morocco
title_fullStr Assessment of the severity and impact of drought spells on rainfed cereals in Morocco
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of the severity and impact of drought spells on rainfed cereals in Morocco
title_short Assessment of the severity and impact of drought spells on rainfed cereals in Morocco
title_sort assessment of the severity and impact of drought spells on rainfed cereals in morocco
topic climate change
agriculture
food security
rain
drought
forecasting
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/68186
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