Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts
The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the results. We outline current approaches to assessing uncertainties in climate impacts, statistical m...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Frontiers Media
2014
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/68179 |
| _version_ | 1855526767175925760 |
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| author | Falloon, Pete D. Challinor, Andrew J. Dessai, S. Hoang L Johnson J Köhler, Ann-Kristin |
| author_browse | Challinor, Andrew J. Dessai, S. Falloon, Pete D. Hoang L Johnson J Köhler, Ann-Kristin |
| author_facet | Falloon, Pete D. Challinor, Andrew J. Dessai, S. Hoang L Johnson J Köhler, Ann-Kristin |
| author_sort | Falloon, Pete D. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the results. We outline current approaches to assessing uncertainties in climate impacts, statistical methods for assessing uncertainties, issues regarding model integration and complexity, and ways in which uncertainty frameworks can be used to inform adaptation decisions, with case studies focused on agriculture. Finally, we highlight future research needs and provide recommendations for making further progress. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace68179 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateRange | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media |
| publisherStr | Frontiers Media |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace681792025-12-08T10:29:22Z Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts Falloon, Pete D. Challinor, Andrew J. Dessai, S. Hoang L Johnson J Köhler, Ann-Kristin climate change agriculture food security models adaptation The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the results. We outline current approaches to assessing uncertainties in climate impacts, statistical methods for assessing uncertainties, issues regarding model integration and complexity, and ways in which uncertainty frameworks can be used to inform adaptation decisions, with case studies focused on agriculture. Finally, we highlight future research needs and provide recommendations for making further progress. 2014 2015-09-16T17:00:32Z 2015-09-16T17:00:32Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/68179 en Open Access Frontiers Media Falloon P, Challinor A, Dessai S, Hoang L, Johnson J, Koehler AK. 2014. Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts. Frontiers in Environmental Science 2:33. |
| spellingShingle | climate change agriculture food security models adaptation Falloon, Pete D. Challinor, Andrew J. Dessai, S. Hoang L Johnson J Köhler, Ann-Kristin Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts |
| title | Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts |
| title_full | Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts |
| title_fullStr | Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts |
| title_short | Ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts |
| title_sort | ensembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts |
| topic | climate change agriculture food security models adaptation |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/68179 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT falloonpeted ensemblesanduncertaintyinclimatechangeimpacts AT challinorandrewj ensemblesanduncertaintyinclimatechangeimpacts AT dessais ensemblesanduncertaintyinclimatechangeimpacts AT hoangl ensemblesanduncertaintyinclimatechangeimpacts AT johnsonj ensemblesanduncertaintyinclimatechangeimpacts AT kohlerannkristin ensemblesanduncertaintyinclimatechangeimpacts |