| Sumario: | CCAFS organized a workshop on Integrated Food Security Modeling in Eastern and Southern Africa on 10-13 February 2014 in Nairobi, Kenya. The workshop was attended by participants from global, regional, and national institutions, including: the World Food Programme (WFP); the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), USAID Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET); the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC); the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES); CGIAR Research Centers (CIMMYT, CIAT, ICRISAT, ICRAF, CIP, ILRI, AfricaRice, IRRI,); and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS);
Workshop presentations and discussions accomplished the following objectives: The concepts and components of Integrated Food Security Modeling were explained along with descriptions, methodologies, and progress of work for current modeling activities in Eastern Africa and globally, including climate models, bio-physical crop models, and econometric models. Data and knowledge gaps, technical challenges, and uncertainties which constrain the accuracy of model outputs were identified, including lack of access to data in formats suitable for model input, data quality issues, errors arising from the aggregation of data collected at points to represent heterogenous areas, and the challenge of quantifying uncertainty when different models are combined. Challenges specific to the region include improving the skill of seasonal climate forecasts for East Africa, adopting the crop models to smallholder farming systems. Institutions participating in in the workshop agreed to prepare a concept note for research on these topics and submit it to CCAFS for funding consideration under Flagship 2: Climate Information Services and Climate-informed Safety Nets.
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