Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change

A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man‐made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation...

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Main Authors: Schueler, S., Falk, W., Koskela, Jaarko, Lefèvre, F., Bozzano, M., Hubert, J., Kraigher, Hojka, Longauer, R., Olrik, D.C.
Format: Journal Article
Language:Inglés
Published: Wiley 2014
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/66068
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author Schueler, S.
Falk, W.
Koskela, Jaarko
Lefèvre, F.
Bozzano, M.
Hubert, J.
Kraigher, Hojka
Longauer, R.
Olrik, D.C.
author_browse Bozzano, M.
Falk, W.
Hubert, J.
Koskela, Jaarko
Kraigher, Hojka
Lefèvre, F.
Longauer, R.
Olrik, D.C.
Schueler, S.
author_facet Schueler, S.
Falk, W.
Koskela, Jaarko
Lefèvre, F.
Bozzano, M.
Hubert, J.
Kraigher, Hojka
Longauer, R.
Olrik, D.C.
author_sort Schueler, S.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man‐made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33–65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species‐specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co‐occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes.
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spelling CGSpace660682025-11-12T05:37:01Z Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change Schueler, S. Falk, W. Koskela, Jaarko Lefèvre, F. Bozzano, M. Hubert, J. Kraigher, Hojka Longauer, R. Olrik, D.C. climate change climatic factors forests genetic resources models ecology A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man‐made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33–65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species‐specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co‐occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes. 2014-05 2015-05-13T13:59:58Z 2015-05-13T13:59:58Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/66068 en Limited Access application/pdf Wiley Schueler, S.; Falk, W.; Koskela, J.; Lefevre, F.; Bozzano, M.; Hubert, J.; Kraigher, H.; Longauer, R.; Olrik, D.C. -2014-Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change-Global Change Biology 20(5)-p. 1498-1511
spellingShingle climate change
climatic factors
forests
genetic resources
models
ecology
Schueler, S.
Falk, W.
Koskela, Jaarko
Lefèvre, F.
Bozzano, M.
Hubert, J.
Kraigher, Hojka
Longauer, R.
Olrik, D.C.
Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change
title Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change
title_full Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change
title_fullStr Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change
title_full_unstemmed Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change
title_short Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change
title_sort vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in europe to climate change
topic climate change
climatic factors
forests
genetic resources
models
ecology
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/66068
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