Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications
Coffee is the world’s most valuable tropical export crop. Recent studies predict severe climate change impacts on Coffea arabica (C. arabica) production. However, quantitative production figures are necessary to provide coffee stakeholders and policy makers with evidence to justify immediate action....
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier
2015
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/65174 |
| _version_ | 1855541864218755072 |
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| author | Craparo, Alessandro Carmelo William Asten, Piet J.A. van Läderach, Peter R.D. Jassogne, Laurence T.P. Grab, S.W. |
| author_browse | Asten, Piet J.A. van Craparo, Alessandro Carmelo William Grab, S.W. Jassogne, Laurence T.P. Läderach, Peter R.D. |
| author_facet | Craparo, Alessandro Carmelo William Asten, Piet J.A. van Läderach, Peter R.D. Jassogne, Laurence T.P. Grab, S.W. |
| author_sort | Craparo, Alessandro Carmelo William |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Coffee is the world’s most valuable tropical export crop. Recent studies predict severe climate change impacts on Coffea arabica (C. arabica) production. However, quantitative production figures are necessary to provide coffee stakeholders and policy makers with evidence to justify immediate action. Using data from the northern Tanzanian highlands, we demonstrate for the first time that increasing night time (Tmin) temperature is the most significant climatic variable responsible for diminishing C. arabica yields between 1961 and 2012. Projecting this forward, every 1 °C rise in Tmin will result in annual yield losses of 137 ± 16.87 kg ha−1 (P = 1.80e-10). According to our ARIMA model, average coffee production will drop to 145 ± 41 kg ha−1 (P = 8.45e-09) by 2060. Consequently, without adequate adaptation strategies and/or substantial external inputs, coffee production will be severely reduced in the Tanzanian highlands in the near future. Attention should also be drawn to the arabica growing regions of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ethiopia and Kenya, as substantiated time series evidence shows these areas have followed strikingly similar minimum temperature trends. This is the first study on coffee, globally, providing essential time series evidence that climate change has already had a negative impact on C. arabica yields. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace65174 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace651742025-03-13T09:45:47Z Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications Craparo, Alessandro Carmelo William Asten, Piet J.A. van Läderach, Peter R.D. Jassogne, Laurence T.P. Grab, S.W. climate change coffea arabica adaptation coffea canephora united republic of tanzania cambio climatico adaptación república unida de tanzanía Coffee is the world’s most valuable tropical export crop. Recent studies predict severe climate change impacts on Coffea arabica (C. arabica) production. However, quantitative production figures are necessary to provide coffee stakeholders and policy makers with evidence to justify immediate action. Using data from the northern Tanzanian highlands, we demonstrate for the first time that increasing night time (Tmin) temperature is the most significant climatic variable responsible for diminishing C. arabica yields between 1961 and 2012. Projecting this forward, every 1 °C rise in Tmin will result in annual yield losses of 137 ± 16.87 kg ha−1 (P = 1.80e-10). According to our ARIMA model, average coffee production will drop to 145 ± 41 kg ha−1 (P = 8.45e-09) by 2060. Consequently, without adequate adaptation strategies and/or substantial external inputs, coffee production will be severely reduced in the Tanzanian highlands in the near future. Attention should also be drawn to the arabica growing regions of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ethiopia and Kenya, as substantiated time series evidence shows these areas have followed strikingly similar minimum temperature trends. This is the first study on coffee, globally, providing essential time series evidence that climate change has already had a negative impact on C. arabica yields. 2015-07 2015-04-21T19:49:15Z 2015-04-21T19:49:15Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/65174 en Open Access Elsevier Craparo, A.C.W.; Van Asten, P.J.A.; Läderach, Peter; Jassogne, L.T.P.; Grab, S.W.. 2015. Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications . Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 207:1-10. |
| spellingShingle | climate change coffea arabica adaptation coffea canephora united republic of tanzania cambio climatico adaptación república unida de tanzanía Craparo, Alessandro Carmelo William Asten, Piet J.A. van Läderach, Peter R.D. Jassogne, Laurence T.P. Grab, S.W. Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications |
| title | Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications |
| title_full | Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications |
| title_fullStr | Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications |
| title_full_unstemmed | Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications |
| title_short | Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications |
| title_sort | coffea arabica yields decline in tanzania due to climate change global implications |
| topic | climate change coffea arabica adaptation coffea canephora united republic of tanzania cambio climatico adaptación república unida de tanzanía |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/65174 |
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