| Sumario: | The value of farming is on the rise again. After years of neglect, smallholder farmers—the lynchpin of rural production—are resuming their position as a major focus for development (World Bank, 2013). In part, this reflects a broad international consensus that land, soil, and water are part of an emerging 'critical nexus' of issues facing the world's population. By mid-century, around 9 billion people will require food security and much of this will still be derived from rural production systems, placing these systems at the heart of the sustainable development agenda. The high demand side driven by population growth is accompanied by uncertainty on the supply side: climate variability and associated rainfall extremes are changing farming practices, including those in East Africa (Kristjanson et al., 2012); already there are signs that future risk – and perception of risk – is shaping the current actions and decisions of rural populations. As atmospheric warming alters the boundaries of agroecologies and shifts the hydrological cycle, these impacts will intersect further with a range of other factors, including the spread of pests and vectors of human and livestock diseases. Political- institutional environments will, in turn, respond through policy in a range of sectors, shaping the ways in which future generations perceive and experience farming as a livelihood system.
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