A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee

Coffee has proven to be highly sensitive to climate change. Because coffee plantations have a lifespan of about thirty years, the likely effects of future climates are already a concern. Forward-looking research on adaptation is therefore in high demand across the entire supply chain. In this paper...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Bunn, Christian, Läderach, Peter R.D., Ovalle Rivera, Oriana, Kirschke, Dieter
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Springer 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/53031
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author Bunn, Christian
Läderach, Peter R.D.
Ovalle Rivera, Oriana
Kirschke, Dieter
author_browse Bunn, Christian
Kirschke, Dieter
Läderach, Peter R.D.
Ovalle Rivera, Oriana
author_facet Bunn, Christian
Läderach, Peter R.D.
Ovalle Rivera, Oriana
Kirschke, Dieter
author_sort Bunn, Christian
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Coffee has proven to be highly sensitive to climate change. Because coffee plantations have a lifespan of about thirty years, the likely effects of future climates are already a concern. Forward-looking research on adaptation is therefore in high demand across the entire supply chain. In this paper we seek to project current and future climate suitability for coffee production (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) on a global scale. We used machine learning algorithms to derive functions of climatic suitability from a database of geo-referenced production locations. Use of several parameter combinations enhances the robustness of our analysis. The resulting multi-model ensemble suggests that higher temperatures may reduce yields of C. arabica, while C. canephora could suffer from increasing variability of intra-seasonal temperatures. Climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50 % across emission scenarios. Impacts are highest at low latitudes and low altitudes. Impacts at higher altitudes and higher latitudes are still negative but less pronounced. The world’s dominant production regions in Brazil and Vietnam may experience substantial reductions in area available for coffee. Some regions in East Africa and Asia may become more suitable, but these are partially in forested areas, which could pose a challenge to mitigation efforts.
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spelling CGSpace530312025-03-13T09:44:34Z A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee Bunn, Christian Läderach, Peter R.D. Ovalle Rivera, Oriana Kirschke, Dieter climate change coffea arabica adaptation coffea canephora geographical information systems production cambio climatico adaptación sistemas de información geográfica producción Coffee has proven to be highly sensitive to climate change. Because coffee plantations have a lifespan of about thirty years, the likely effects of future climates are already a concern. Forward-looking research on adaptation is therefore in high demand across the entire supply chain. In this paper we seek to project current and future climate suitability for coffee production (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) on a global scale. We used machine learning algorithms to derive functions of climatic suitability from a database of geo-referenced production locations. Use of several parameter combinations enhances the robustness of our analysis. The resulting multi-model ensemble suggests that higher temperatures may reduce yields of C. arabica, while C. canephora could suffer from increasing variability of intra-seasonal temperatures. Climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50 % across emission scenarios. Impacts are highest at low latitudes and low altitudes. Impacts at higher altitudes and higher latitudes are still negative but less pronounced. The world’s dominant production regions in Brazil and Vietnam may experience substantial reductions in area available for coffee. Some regions in East Africa and Asia may become more suitable, but these are partially in forested areas, which could pose a challenge to mitigation efforts. 2015-03 2015-01-16T19:41:56Z 2015-01-16T19:41:56Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/53031 en Open Access Springer Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Ovalle Rivera, Oriana; Kirschke, Dieter. 2014. A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee. Climate Change Published online.
spellingShingle climate change
coffea arabica
adaptation
coffea canephora
geographical information systems
production
cambio climatico
adaptación
sistemas de información geográfica
producción
Bunn, Christian
Läderach, Peter R.D.
Ovalle Rivera, Oriana
Kirschke, Dieter
A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee
title A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee
title_full A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee
title_fullStr A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee
title_full_unstemmed A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee
title_short A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee
title_sort bitter cup climate change profile of global production of arabica and robusta coffee
topic climate change
coffea arabica
adaptation
coffea canephora
geographical information systems
production
cambio climatico
adaptación
sistemas de información geográfica
producción
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/53031
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