Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity
Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of...
| Autores principales: | , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2015
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52989 |
| _version_ | 1855529166893481984 |
|---|---|
| author | Challinor, Andrew J. Parkes B Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando |
| author_browse | Challinor, Andrew J. Parkes B Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando |
| author_facet | Challinor, Andrew J. Parkes B Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando |
| author_sort | Challinor, Andrew J. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis of global crop data suggests that heterogeneity in cropping intensity is a likely source of scale dependency for a number of crops across the globe. Further crop modelling and a meta-analysis of projected tropical maize yields are used to assess the implications for climate change assessments. The results show that scale dependency is a potential source of systematic bias. We conclude that spatially comprehensive assessments of climate impacts based on yield alone, without accounting for cropping intensity, are prone to systematic overestimation of climate impacts. The findings therefore suggest a need for greater attention to crop suitability and land use change when assessing the impacts of climate change. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace52989 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace529892024-08-27T10:36:17Z Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity Challinor, Andrew J. Parkes B Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando climate agriculture crop yield crop modelling land use Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis of global crop data suggests that heterogeneity in cropping intensity is a likely source of scale dependency for a number of crops across the globe. Further crop modelling and a meta-analysis of projected tropical maize yields are used to assess the implications for climate change assessments. The results show that scale dependency is a potential source of systematic bias. We conclude that spatially comprehensive assessments of climate impacts based on yield alone, without accounting for cropping intensity, are prone to systematic overestimation of climate impacts. The findings therefore suggest a need for greater attention to crop suitability and land use change when assessing the impacts of climate change. 2015-04 2015-01-15T08:23:34Z 2015-01-15T08:23:34Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52989 en Limited Access Wiley Challinor AJ, Parkes B, Ramirez-Villegas J. 2015. Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity. Global Change Biology |
| spellingShingle | climate agriculture crop yield crop modelling land use Challinor, Andrew J. Parkes B Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity |
| title | Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity |
| title_full | Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity |
| title_fullStr | Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity |
| title_full_unstemmed | Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity |
| title_short | Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity |
| title_sort | crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity |
| topic | climate agriculture crop yield crop modelling land use |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52989 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT challinorandrewj cropyieldresponsetoclimatechangevarieswithcroppingintensity AT parkesb cropyieldresponsetoclimatechangevarieswithcroppingintensity AT ramirezvillegasjulianarmando cropyieldresponsetoclimatechangevarieswithcroppingintensity |