Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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National Academy of Sciences
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52118 |
| _version_ | 1855541880748507136 |
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| author | Nelson, Gerald C. Valin, Hugo Sands, Ronald D. Havlík, Petr Ahammad, H. Deryng, Delphine Elliott J Fujimori, Shinichiro Hasegawa, Tomoko Heyhoe, Edwina Kyle, Page Lampe M. von Lotze-Campen, Hermann Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Meijl, Hans van Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der Müller, Christoph Popp, Alexander Robertson, Richard D. Robinson, Sherman Schmid, Erwin Schmitz, Christoph Tabeau, Andrzej Willenbockel, Dirk |
| author_browse | Ahammad, H. Deryng, Delphine Elliott J Fujimori, Shinichiro Hasegawa, Tomoko Havlík, Petr Heyhoe, Edwina Kyle, Page Lampe M. von Lotze-Campen, Hermann Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Meijl, Hans van Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der Müller, Christoph Nelson, Gerald C. Popp, Alexander Robertson, Richard D. Robinson, Sherman Sands, Ronald D. Schmid, Erwin Schmitz, Christoph Tabeau, Andrzej Valin, Hugo Willenbockel, Dirk |
| author_facet | Nelson, Gerald C. Valin, Hugo Sands, Ronald D. Havlík, Petr Ahammad, H. Deryng, Delphine Elliott J Fujimori, Shinichiro Hasegawa, Tomoko Heyhoe, Edwina Kyle, Page Lampe M. von Lotze-Campen, Hermann Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Meijl, Hans van Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der Müller, Christoph Popp, Alexander Robertson, Richard D. Robinson, Sherman Schmid, Erwin Schmitz, Christoph Tabeau, Andrzej Willenbockel, Dirk |
| author_sort | Nelson, Gerald C. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace52118 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateRange | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| publisherStr | National Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace521182025-05-01T21:01:51Z Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks Nelson, Gerald C. Valin, Hugo Sands, Ronald D. Havlík, Petr Ahammad, H. Deryng, Delphine Elliott J Fujimori, Shinichiro Hasegawa, Tomoko Heyhoe, Edwina Kyle, Page Lampe M. von Lotze-Campen, Hermann Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Meijl, Hans van Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der Müller, Christoph Popp, Alexander Robertson, Richard D. Robinson, Sherman Schmid, Erwin Schmitz, Christoph Tabeau, Andrzej Willenbockel, Dirk resource management technological changes economic development commodities agriculture assessment agricultural productivity prices commodity markets resilience climate change models economic analysis shock climate malnutrition nutrition trade food supply plant models protected areas environmental modelling agricultural development climate change adaptation food security Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. 2014-03-04 2014-12-16T06:37:34Z 2014-12-16T06:37:34Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52118 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154049 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154027 Open Access National Academy of Sciences Nelson GC, Valin H, Sands RD, Havlík P, Ahammad H, Deryng D, Elliott J, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Heyhoe E, Kyle P, Von Lampe M, Lotze-Campen H, Mason-d’Croz D, van Meijl H, van der Mensbrugghe D, Müller C, Popp A, Robertson RD, Robinson S, Schmid E, Schmitz C, Tabeau A, Willenbockel D. 2013. Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 111(9):3274-3279 |
| spellingShingle | resource management technological changes economic development commodities agriculture assessment agricultural productivity prices commodity markets resilience climate change models economic analysis shock climate malnutrition nutrition trade food supply plant models protected areas environmental modelling agricultural development climate change adaptation food security Nelson, Gerald C. Valin, Hugo Sands, Ronald D. Havlík, Petr Ahammad, H. Deryng, Delphine Elliott J Fujimori, Shinichiro Hasegawa, Tomoko Heyhoe, Edwina Kyle, Page Lampe M. von Lotze-Campen, Hermann Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Meijl, Hans van Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der Müller, Christoph Popp, Alexander Robertson, Richard D. Robinson, Sherman Schmid, Erwin Schmitz, Christoph Tabeau, Andrzej Willenbockel, Dirk Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks |
| title | Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks |
| title_full | Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks |
| title_fullStr | Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks |
| title_short | Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks |
| title_sort | climate change effects on agriculture economic responses to biophysical shocks |
| topic | resource management technological changes economic development commodities agriculture assessment agricultural productivity prices commodity markets resilience climate change models economic analysis shock climate malnutrition nutrition trade food supply plant models protected areas environmental modelling agricultural development climate change adaptation food security |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52118 |
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