South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures
The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and prices for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM projections show consistent strong warmi...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
ZBW - German National Library of Economics
2013
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52079 |
| _version_ | 1855521504789266432 |
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| author | Dube, Sikhalazo Scholes, Robert J. Nelson, Gerald C. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Palazzo, Amanda |
| author_browse | Dube, Sikhalazo Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Nelson, Gerald C. Palazzo, Amanda Scholes, Robert J. |
| author_facet | Dube, Sikhalazo Scholes, Robert J. Nelson, Gerald C. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Palazzo, Amanda |
| author_sort | Dube, Sikhalazo |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and prices for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM projections show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model. The results indicate slightly rising to stable yields per unit area up to 2050, despite climate change, largely due to the inbuilt assumption of ongoing agronomic and genetic improvements. Vulnerability to food insecurity increases in the future under all but the most optimistic development scenarios, and is exacerbated by climate change, especially through global-scale, market- related mechanisms. Policies to increase local agricultural production in South Africa, decrease climate sensitivity and access to international markets are highlighted. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace52079 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateRange | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | ZBW - German National Library of Economics |
| publisherStr | ZBW - German National Library of Economics |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace520792025-11-13T10:38:35Z South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures Dube, Sikhalazo Scholes, Robert J. Nelson, Gerald C. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Palazzo, Amanda climate agriculture food security crop yield simulation models The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and prices for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM projections show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model. The results indicate slightly rising to stable yields per unit area up to 2050, despite climate change, largely due to the inbuilt assumption of ongoing agronomic and genetic improvements. Vulnerability to food insecurity increases in the future under all but the most optimistic development scenarios, and is exacerbated by climate change, especially through global-scale, market- related mechanisms. Policies to increase local agricultural production in South Africa, decrease climate sensitivity and access to international markets are highlighted. 2013-12-01 2014-12-16T06:37:31Z 2014-12-16T06:37:31Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52079 en Open Access ZBW - German National Library of Economics Dube S, Scholes RJ, Nelson GC, Mason-D’Croz D, Palazzo A. 2013. South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures. Economics 7:1-54 |
| spellingShingle | climate agriculture food security crop yield simulation models Dube, Sikhalazo Scholes, Robert J. Nelson, Gerald C. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Palazzo, Amanda South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures |
| title | South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures |
| title_full | South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures |
| title_fullStr | South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures |
| title_full_unstemmed | South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures |
| title_short | South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures |
| title_sort | south african food security and climate change agriculture futures |
| topic | climate agriculture food security crop yield simulation models |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/52079 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dubesikhalazo southafricanfoodsecurityandclimatechangeagriculturefutures AT scholesrobertj southafricanfoodsecurityandclimatechangeagriculturefutures AT nelsongeraldc southafricanfoodsecurityandclimatechangeagriculturefutures AT masondcrozdaniel southafricanfoodsecurityandclimatechangeagriculturefutures AT palazzoamanda southafricanfoodsecurityandclimatechangeagriculturefutures |