Global water demand projections: past, present and future
A review of global water demand projections (WDPs) show substantial overpredictions or under-predictions. The pre-1990 WDPs, with population as the main driver of change, overpredicted current water use by 20 to 130%. The post-1990 WDPs, with sophisticated modeling frameworks, show substantial under...
| Autor principal: | |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Informe técnico |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Water Management Institute
2014
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/44933 |
| _version_ | 1855539918767390720 |
|---|---|
| author | Smakhtin, Vladimir U. |
| author_browse | Smakhtin, Vladimir U. |
| author_facet | Smakhtin, Vladimir U. |
| author_sort | Smakhtin, Vladimir U. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | A review of global water demand projections (WDPs) show substantial overpredictions or under-predictions. The pre-1990 WDPs, with population as the main driver of change, overpredicted current water use by 20 to 130%. The post-1990 WDPs, with sophisticated modeling frameworks, show substantial underestimation under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios and are more downward biased under sustainable scenarios. Overall, the value of long-term country-level projections in global WDPs is inadequate for local water resource planning. To increase the accuracy and value of global WDPs, future WDPs should take into account the spatial variation and influence of rapidly changing key exogenous and endogenous drivers of water demand in different sectors across and within countries, and provide a sensitivity analysis of projections. |
| format | Informe técnico |
| id | CGSpace44933 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateRange | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | International Water Management Institute |
| publisherStr | International Water Management Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace449332025-11-07T08:46:33Z Global water demand projections: past, present and future Smakhtin, Vladimir U. research subject categories water demand forecasting irrigated farming water resources wells planning crop production drilling domestic water secondary sector agricultural sector irrigation efficiency water use economic growth income A review of global water demand projections (WDPs) show substantial overpredictions or under-predictions. The pre-1990 WDPs, with population as the main driver of change, overpredicted current water use by 20 to 130%. The post-1990 WDPs, with sophisticated modeling frameworks, show substantial underestimation under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios and are more downward biased under sustainable scenarios. Overall, the value of long-term country-level projections in global WDPs is inadequate for local water resource planning. To increase the accuracy and value of global WDPs, future WDPs should take into account the spatial variation and influence of rapidly changing key exogenous and endogenous drivers of water demand in different sectors across and within countries, and provide a sensitivity analysis of projections. 2014 2014-10-07T09:54:24Z 2014-10-07T09:54:24Z Report https://hdl.handle.net/10568/44933 en Open Access application/pdf International Water Management Institute Amarasinghe, Upali A.; Smakhtin, Vladimir. 2014. Global water demand projections: past, present and future. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI).. 32p. (IWMI Research Report 156) |
| spellingShingle | research subject categories water demand forecasting irrigated farming water resources wells planning crop production drilling domestic water secondary sector agricultural sector irrigation efficiency water use economic growth income Smakhtin, Vladimir U. Global water demand projections: past, present and future |
| title | Global water demand projections: past, present and future |
| title_full | Global water demand projections: past, present and future |
| title_fullStr | Global water demand projections: past, present and future |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global water demand projections: past, present and future |
| title_short | Global water demand projections: past, present and future |
| title_sort | global water demand projections past present and future |
| topic | research subject categories water demand forecasting irrigated farming water resources wells planning crop production drilling domestic water secondary sector agricultural sector irrigation efficiency water use economic growth income |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/44933 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT smakhtinvladimiru globalwaterdemandprojectionspastpresentandfuture |