Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture
Global food demand is increasing rapidly, as are the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion. Here, we project global demand for crop production in 2050 and evaluate the environmental impacts of alternative ways that this demand might be met. We find that per capita demand for crops, when me...
| Autores principales: | , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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National Academy of Sciences
2011
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/42922 |
| _version_ | 1855538781296263168 |
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| author | Tilman, D. Balzer, C Hill, J Befort, BL |
| author_browse | Balzer, C Befort, BL Hill, J Tilman, D. |
| author_facet | Tilman, D. Balzer, C Hill, J Befort, BL |
| author_sort | Tilman, D. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Global food demand is increasing rapidly, as are the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion. Here, we project global demand for crop production in 2050 and evaluate the environmental impacts of alternative ways that this demand might be met. We find that per capita demand for crops, when measured as caloric or protein content of all crops combined, has been a similarly increasing function of per capita real income since 1960. This relationship forecasts a 100–110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050. Quantitative assessments show that the environmental impacts of meeting this demand depend on how global agriculture expands. If current trends of greater agricultural intensification in richer nations and greater land clearing (extensification) in poorer nations were to continue, ∼1 billion ha of land would be cleared globally by 2050, with CO2-C equivalent greenhouse gas emissions reaching ∼3 Gt y−1 and N use ∼250 Mt y−1 by then. In contrast, if 2050 crop demand was met by moderate intensification focused on existing croplands of underyielding nations, adaptation and transfer of high-yielding technologies to these croplands, and global technological improvements, our analyses forecast land clearing of only ∼0.2 billion ha, greenhouse gas emissions of ∼1 Gt y−1, and global N use of ∼225 Mt y−1. Efficient management practices could substantially lower nitrogen use. Attainment of high yields on existing croplands of underyielding nations is of great importance if global crop demand is to be met with minimal environmental impacts. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace42922 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateRange | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| publisherStr | National Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace429222024-10-17T09:47:53Z Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture Tilman, D. Balzer, C Hill, J Befort, BL food security land-use change biodiversity climate change soil fertility Global food demand is increasing rapidly, as are the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion. Here, we project global demand for crop production in 2050 and evaluate the environmental impacts of alternative ways that this demand might be met. We find that per capita demand for crops, when measured as caloric or protein content of all crops combined, has been a similarly increasing function of per capita real income since 1960. This relationship forecasts a 100–110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050. Quantitative assessments show that the environmental impacts of meeting this demand depend on how global agriculture expands. If current trends of greater agricultural intensification in richer nations and greater land clearing (extensification) in poorer nations were to continue, ∼1 billion ha of land would be cleared globally by 2050, with CO2-C equivalent greenhouse gas emissions reaching ∼3 Gt y−1 and N use ∼250 Mt y−1 by then. In contrast, if 2050 crop demand was met by moderate intensification focused on existing croplands of underyielding nations, adaptation and transfer of high-yielding technologies to these croplands, and global technological improvements, our analyses forecast land clearing of only ∼0.2 billion ha, greenhouse gas emissions of ∼1 Gt y−1, and global N use of ∼225 Mt y−1. Efficient management practices could substantially lower nitrogen use. Attainment of high yields on existing croplands of underyielding nations is of great importance if global crop demand is to be met with minimal environmental impacts. 2011-12-13 2014-09-24T07:58:46Z 2014-09-24T07:58:46Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/42922 en Open Access National Academy of Sciences Tilman, David; Balzer, Christian; Hill, Jason; Belfort, Belinda L. 2011. What if Several of the World’s Biggest Food Crops Failed at the Same Time?. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 108(50): 20260–20264. |
| spellingShingle | food security land-use change biodiversity climate change soil fertility Tilman, D. Balzer, C Hill, J Befort, BL Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| title | Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| title_full | Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| title_fullStr | Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| title_short | Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| title_sort | global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| topic | food security land-use change biodiversity climate change soil fertility |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/42922 |
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