Climate change effects on walnut pests in California
Increasing temperatures are likely to impact ectothermic pests of fruits and nuts. This paper aims to assess changes to pest pressure in California's US$0.7 billion walnut industry due to recent historic and projected future temperature changes. For two past (1950 and 2000) and 18 future climate sce...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2011
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/42001 |
| _version_ | 1855532266318462976 |
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| author | Luedeling, Eike Steinmann KP Zhang M Brown, P.H. Gran J Girvetz, Evan Hartunian |
| author_browse | Brown, P.H. Girvetz, Evan Hartunian Gran J Luedeling, Eike Steinmann KP Zhang M |
| author_facet | Luedeling, Eike Steinmann KP Zhang M Brown, P.H. Gran J Girvetz, Evan Hartunian |
| author_sort | Luedeling, Eike |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Increasing temperatures are likely to impact ectothermic pests of fruits and nuts. This paper aims to assess changes to pest pressure in California's US$0.7 billion walnut industry due to recent historic and projected future temperature changes. For two past (1950 and 2000) and 18 future climate scenarios (2041 2060 and 2080 2099; each for three General Circulation Models and three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios), 100 years of hourly temperature were generated for 205 locations. Degree-day models were used to project mean generation numbers for codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella Walker), two-spotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae Koch), and European red mite (Panonychus ulmi Koch). In the Central Valley, the number of codling moth generations predicted for degree days accumulated between April 1 and October 1 rose from 2 4 in 1950 to 3 5 among all future scenarios. Generation numbers increased from 10 18 to 14 24 for two-spotted spider mite, from 9 14 to 14 20 for European red mite, and from 2 4 to up to 5 for navel orangeworm. Overall pest pressure can thus be expected to increase substantially. Our study did not include the possibility of higher winter survival rates, leading to higher initial pest counts in spring, or of extended pest development times in the summer, factors that are likely to exacerbate future pest pressure. On the other hand, initiation of diapause may prevent an extension of the season length for arthropods, and higher incidence of heat death in summer may constrain pest population sizes. More information on the impact of climate change on complex agroecological food webs and on the response of pests to high temperatures is needed for improving the reliability of projections. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace42001 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateRange | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace420012024-01-17T12:58:34Z Climate change effects on walnut pests in California Luedeling, Eike Steinmann KP Zhang M Brown, P.H. Gran J Girvetz, Evan Hartunian agriculture climate cydia pomonella amylois transitella tetranycus urticae panonychus ulmi pests nuts fruit Increasing temperatures are likely to impact ectothermic pests of fruits and nuts. This paper aims to assess changes to pest pressure in California's US$0.7 billion walnut industry due to recent historic and projected future temperature changes. For two past (1950 and 2000) and 18 future climate scenarios (2041 2060 and 2080 2099; each for three General Circulation Models and three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios), 100 years of hourly temperature were generated for 205 locations. Degree-day models were used to project mean generation numbers for codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella Walker), two-spotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae Koch), and European red mite (Panonychus ulmi Koch). In the Central Valley, the number of codling moth generations predicted for degree days accumulated between April 1 and October 1 rose from 2 4 in 1950 to 3 5 among all future scenarios. Generation numbers increased from 10 18 to 14 24 for two-spotted spider mite, from 9 14 to 14 20 for European red mite, and from 2 4 to up to 5 for navel orangeworm. Overall pest pressure can thus be expected to increase substantially. Our study did not include the possibility of higher winter survival rates, leading to higher initial pest counts in spring, or of extended pest development times in the summer, factors that are likely to exacerbate future pest pressure. On the other hand, initiation of diapause may prevent an extension of the season length for arthropods, and higher incidence of heat death in summer may constrain pest population sizes. More information on the impact of climate change on complex agroecological food webs and on the response of pests to high temperatures is needed for improving the reliability of projections. 2011-01 2014-08-15T12:13:16Z 2014-08-15T12:13:16Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/42001 en Limited Access Wiley Luedeling E, Steinmann KP, Zhang M, Brown PH, Gran J, Girvetz EH. 2011. Climate change effects on walnut pests in California. Global Change Biology 17(1), 228-238. |
| spellingShingle | agriculture climate cydia pomonella amylois transitella tetranycus urticae panonychus ulmi pests nuts fruit Luedeling, Eike Steinmann KP Zhang M Brown, P.H. Gran J Girvetz, Evan Hartunian Climate change effects on walnut pests in California |
| title | Climate change effects on walnut pests in California |
| title_full | Climate change effects on walnut pests in California |
| title_fullStr | Climate change effects on walnut pests in California |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change effects on walnut pests in California |
| title_short | Climate change effects on walnut pests in California |
| title_sort | climate change effects on walnut pests in california |
| topic | agriculture climate cydia pomonella amylois transitella tetranycus urticae panonychus ulmi pests nuts fruit |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/42001 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT luedelingeike climatechangeeffectsonwalnutpestsincalifornia AT steinmannkp climatechangeeffectsonwalnutpestsincalifornia AT zhangm climatechangeeffectsonwalnutpestsincalifornia AT brownph climatechangeeffectsonwalnutpestsincalifornia AT granj climatechangeeffectsonwalnutpestsincalifornia AT girvetzevanhartunian climatechangeeffectsonwalnutpestsincalifornia |