Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease
The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services are complex in the sense that effective prediction requires consideration of a wide range of factors. Useful analysis of climate-change impacts on crops and native plant systems will often require consideration of the wide array of other biota that...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2011
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/34972 |
| _version_ | 1855535566792163328 |
|---|---|
| author | Garrett, K.A. Forbes, G. Savary, S. Skelsey, P. Sparks, Adam H. Valdivia, C. Bruggen, A.H.C. van Willocquet, L. Djurle, A. Duveiller, Etienne Eckersten, H. Pande, S. Vera Cruz, C. Yuen J |
| author_browse | Bruggen, A.H.C. van Djurle, A. Duveiller, Etienne Eckersten, H. Forbes, G. Garrett, K.A. Pande, S. Savary, S. Skelsey, P. Sparks, Adam H. Valdivia, C. Vera Cruz, C. Willocquet, L. Yuen J |
| author_facet | Garrett, K.A. Forbes, G. Savary, S. Skelsey, P. Sparks, Adam H. Valdivia, C. Bruggen, A.H.C. van Willocquet, L. Djurle, A. Duveiller, Etienne Eckersten, H. Pande, S. Vera Cruz, C. Yuen J |
| author_sort | Garrett, K.A. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services are complex in the sense that effective prediction requires consideration of a wide range of factors. Useful analysis of climate-change impacts on crops and native plant systems will often require consideration of the wide array of other biota that interact with plants, including plant diseases, animal herbivores, and weeds. We present a framework for analysis of complexity in climate-change effects mediated by plant disease. This framework can support evaluation of the level of model complexity likely to be required for analysing climate-change impacts mediated by disease. Our analysis incorporates consideration of the following set of questions for a particular host, pathogen, host–pathogen combination, or geographic region. 1. Are multiple biological interactions important? 2. Are there environmental thresholds for population responses? 3. Are there indirect effects of global change factors on disease development? 4. Are spatial components of epidemic processes affected by climate? 5. Are there feedback loops for management? 6. Are networks for intervention technologies slower than epidemic networks? 7. Are there effects of plant disease on multiple ecosystem services? 8. Are there feedback loops from plant disease to climate change? Evaluation of these questions will help in gauging system complexity, as illustrated for fusarium head blight and potato late blight. In practice, it may be necessary to expand models to include more components, identify those components that are the most important, and synthesize such models to include the optimal level of complexity for planning and research prioritization. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace34972 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateRange | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace349722024-04-16T06:27:29Z Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease Garrett, K.A. Forbes, G. Savary, S. Skelsey, P. Sparks, Adam H. Valdivia, C. Bruggen, A.H.C. van Willocquet, L. Djurle, A. Duveiller, Etienne Eckersten, H. Pande, S. Vera Cruz, C. Yuen J agriculture climate plant diseases ecosystem services potatoes phytophthora infestans climate change The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services are complex in the sense that effective prediction requires consideration of a wide range of factors. Useful analysis of climate-change impacts on crops and native plant systems will often require consideration of the wide array of other biota that interact with plants, including plant diseases, animal herbivores, and weeds. We present a framework for analysis of complexity in climate-change effects mediated by plant disease. This framework can support evaluation of the level of model complexity likely to be required for analysing climate-change impacts mediated by disease. Our analysis incorporates consideration of the following set of questions for a particular host, pathogen, host–pathogen combination, or geographic region. 1. Are multiple biological interactions important? 2. Are there environmental thresholds for population responses? 3. Are there indirect effects of global change factors on disease development? 4. Are spatial components of epidemic processes affected by climate? 5. Are there feedback loops for management? 6. Are networks for intervention technologies slower than epidemic networks? 7. Are there effects of plant disease on multiple ecosystem services? 8. Are there feedback loops from plant disease to climate change? Evaluation of these questions will help in gauging system complexity, as illustrated for fusarium head blight and potato late blight. In practice, it may be necessary to expand models to include more components, identify those components that are the most important, and synthesize such models to include the optimal level of complexity for planning and research prioritization. 2011-02 2014-02-19T07:59:27Z 2014-02-19T07:59:27Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/34972 en Open Access Wiley Garrett, K. A., Forbes, G. A., Savary, S., Skelsey, P., Sparks, A. H., Valdivia, C., van Bruggen, A. H. C., Willocquet, L., Djurle, A., Duveiller, E., Eckersten, H., Pande, S., Vera Cruz, C., & Yuen, J. (2011). Complexity in climate‐change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease. In Plant Pathology (Vol. 60, Issue 1, pp. 15–30). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02409.x |
| spellingShingle | agriculture climate plant diseases ecosystem services potatoes phytophthora infestans climate change Garrett, K.A. Forbes, G. Savary, S. Skelsey, P. Sparks, Adam H. Valdivia, C. Bruggen, A.H.C. van Willocquet, L. Djurle, A. Duveiller, Etienne Eckersten, H. Pande, S. Vera Cruz, C. Yuen J Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease |
| title | Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease |
| title_full | Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease |
| title_fullStr | Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease |
| title_full_unstemmed | Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease |
| title_short | Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease |
| title_sort | complexity in climate change impacts an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease |
| topic | agriculture climate plant diseases ecosystem services potatoes phytophthora infestans climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/34972 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT garrettka complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT forbesg complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT savarys complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT skelseyp complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT sparksadamh complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT valdiviac complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT bruggenahcvan complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT willocquetl complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT djurlea complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT duveilleretienne complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT eckerstenh complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT pandes complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT veracruzc complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease AT yuenj complexityinclimatechangeimpactsananalyticalframeworkforeffectsmediatedbyplantdisease |