Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation
Significant progress has been made in the use of ensemble agricultural and climate modelling, and observed data, to project future productivity and to develop adaptation options. An increasing number of agricultural models are designed specifically for use with climate ensembles, and improved method...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Elsevier
2013
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/34937 |
| _version_ | 1855527639638343680 |
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| author | Challinor, Andrew J. Stafford Smith, M. Thornton, Philip K. |
| author_browse | Challinor, Andrew J. Stafford Smith, M. Thornton, Philip K. |
| author_facet | Challinor, Andrew J. Stafford Smith, M. Thornton, Philip K. |
| author_sort | Challinor, Andrew J. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Significant progress has been made in the use of ensemble agricultural and climate modelling, and observed data, to project future productivity and to develop adaptation options. An increasing number of agricultural models are designed specifically for use with climate ensembles, and improved methods to quantify uncertainty in both climate and agriculture have been developed. Whilst crop–climate relationships are still the most common agricultural study of this sort, on-farm management, hydrology, pests, diseases and livestock are now also examined. This paper introduces all of these areas of progress, with more detail being found in the subsequent papers in the special issue. Remaining scientific challenges are discussed, and a distinction is developed between projection- and utility-based approaches to agro-climate ensemble modelling. Recommendations are made regarding the manner in which uncertainty is analysed and reported, and the way in which models and data are used to make inferences regarding the future. A key underlying principle is the use of models as tools from which information is extracted, rather than as competing attempts to represent reality. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace34937 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateRange | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace349372025-11-12T05:56:03Z Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation Challinor, Andrew J. Stafford Smith, M. Thornton, Philip K. agriculture climate adaptation food security models yields Significant progress has been made in the use of ensemble agricultural and climate modelling, and observed data, to project future productivity and to develop adaptation options. An increasing number of agricultural models are designed specifically for use with climate ensembles, and improved methods to quantify uncertainty in both climate and agriculture have been developed. Whilst crop–climate relationships are still the most common agricultural study of this sort, on-farm management, hydrology, pests, diseases and livestock are now also examined. This paper introduces all of these areas of progress, with more detail being found in the subsequent papers in the special issue. Remaining scientific challenges are discussed, and a distinction is developed between projection- and utility-based approaches to agro-climate ensemble modelling. Recommendations are made regarding the manner in which uncertainty is analysed and reported, and the way in which models and data are used to make inferences regarding the future. A key underlying principle is the use of models as tools from which information is extracted, rather than as competing attempts to represent reality. 2013-03 2014-02-19T07:59:22Z 2014-02-19T07:59:22Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/34937 en Open Access application/pdf Elsevier Challinor AJ, Stafford Smith M, Thornton PK. 2013. Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation. Agricultural and Forestry Meteorology 170: 2-7. |
| spellingShingle | agriculture climate adaptation food security models yields Challinor, Andrew J. Stafford Smith, M. Thornton, Philip K. Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation |
| title | Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation |
| title_full | Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation |
| title_fullStr | Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation |
| title_short | Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation |
| title_sort | use of agro climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation |
| topic | agriculture climate adaptation food security models yields |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/34937 |
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