Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models
We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socio-economic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analyzed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socio-economic scenarios of how Kenya m...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2014
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/34420 |
| _version_ | 1855534627290087424 |
|---|---|
| author | Herrero, Mario Thornton, Philip K. Bernués, A. Baltenweck, Isabelle Vervoort, Joost M. Steeg, Jeannette van de Makokha, S. Wijk, Mark T. van Karanja, S. Rufino, Mariana C. Staal, Steven J. |
| author_browse | Baltenweck, Isabelle Bernués, A. Herrero, Mario Karanja, S. Makokha, S. Rufino, Mariana C. Staal, Steven J. Steeg, Jeannette van de Thornton, Philip K. Vervoort, Joost M. Wijk, Mark T. van |
| author_facet | Herrero, Mario Thornton, Philip K. Bernués, A. Baltenweck, Isabelle Vervoort, Joost M. Steeg, Jeannette van de Makokha, S. Wijk, Mark T. van Karanja, S. Rufino, Mariana C. Staal, Steven J. |
| author_sort | Herrero, Mario |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socio-economic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analyzed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socio-economic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector, were developed with a range of stakeholders. We study how different types of farming systems might increase or diminish in importance under different scenarios using a land-use model sensitive to prices, opportunity cost of land and labour, and other variables. We then use a household model to determine the types of enterprises in which different types of households might engage under different socio-economic conditions. Trajectories of intensification, diversification, and stagnation for different farming systems are identified. Diversification with cash crops is found to be a key intensification strategy as farm size decreases and labour costs increase. Dairy expansion, while important for some trajectories, is mostly viable when land available is not a constraint, mainly due to the need for planting fodders at the expense of cropland areas. We discuss the results in relation to induced innovation theories of intensification. We outline how the methodology employed could be used for integrating global and regional change assessments with local-level studies on farming options, adaptation to global change, and upscaling of social, environmental and economic impacts of agricultural development investments and interventions. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace34420 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateRange | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace344202025-11-12T04:29:42Z Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models Herrero, Mario Thornton, Philip K. Bernués, A. Baltenweck, Isabelle Vervoort, Joost M. Steeg, Jeannette van de Makokha, S. Wijk, Mark T. van Karanja, S. Rufino, Mariana C. Staal, Steven J. livestock farming systems We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socio-economic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analyzed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socio-economic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector, were developed with a range of stakeholders. We study how different types of farming systems might increase or diminish in importance under different scenarios using a land-use model sensitive to prices, opportunity cost of land and labour, and other variables. We then use a household model to determine the types of enterprises in which different types of households might engage under different socio-economic conditions. Trajectories of intensification, diversification, and stagnation for different farming systems are identified. Diversification with cash crops is found to be a key intensification strategy as farm size decreases and labour costs increase. Dairy expansion, while important for some trajectories, is mostly viable when land available is not a constraint, mainly due to the need for planting fodders at the expense of cropland areas. We discuss the results in relation to induced innovation theories of intensification. We outline how the methodology employed could be used for integrating global and regional change assessments with local-level studies on farming options, adaptation to global change, and upscaling of social, environmental and economic impacts of agricultural development investments and interventions. 2014-01 2014-01-29T07:14:04Z 2014-01-29T07:14:04Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/34420 en Open Access application/pdf Elsevier Herrero, M., Thornton, P.K., Bernués, A., Baltenweck, I., Vervoort, J., Steeg, J. van de, Makokha, S., Wijk, M.T. van, Karanja, S., Rufino, M.C. and Staal, S.J. 2014. Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models. Global Environmental Change 24:165-182. |
| spellingShingle | livestock farming systems Herrero, Mario Thornton, Philip K. Bernués, A. Baltenweck, Isabelle Vervoort, Joost M. Steeg, Jeannette van de Makokha, S. Wijk, Mark T. van Karanja, S. Rufino, Mariana C. Staal, Steven J. Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models |
| title | Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models |
| title_full | Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models |
| title_fullStr | Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models |
| title_short | Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models |
| title_sort | exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio economic scenarios with regional and household models |
| topic | livestock farming systems |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/34420 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT herreromario exploringfuturechangesinsmallholderfarmingsystemsbylinkingsocioeconomicscenarioswithregionalandhouseholdmodels AT thorntonphilipk exploringfuturechangesinsmallholderfarmingsystemsbylinkingsocioeconomicscenarioswithregionalandhouseholdmodels AT bernuesa exploringfuturechangesinsmallholderfarmingsystemsbylinkingsocioeconomicscenarioswithregionalandhouseholdmodels AT baltenweckisabelle exploringfuturechangesinsmallholderfarmingsystemsbylinkingsocioeconomicscenarioswithregionalandhouseholdmodels AT vervoortjoostm exploringfuturechangesinsmallholderfarmingsystemsbylinkingsocioeconomicscenarioswithregionalandhouseholdmodels AT steegjeannettevande exploringfuturechangesinsmallholderfarmingsystemsbylinkingsocioeconomicscenarioswithregionalandhouseholdmodels AT makokhas exploringfuturechangesinsmallholderfarmingsystemsbylinkingsocioeconomicscenarioswithregionalandhouseholdmodels AT wijkmarktvan exploringfuturechangesinsmallholderfarmingsystemsbylinkingsocioeconomicscenarioswithregionalandhouseholdmodels AT karanjas exploringfuturechangesinsmallholderfarmingsystemsbylinkingsocioeconomicscenarioswithregionalandhouseholdmodels AT rufinomarianac exploringfuturechangesinsmallholderfarmingsystemsbylinkingsocioeconomicscenarioswithregionalandhouseholdmodels AT staalstevenj exploringfuturechangesinsmallholderfarmingsystemsbylinkingsocioeconomicscenarioswithregionalandhouseholdmodels |