Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture
This chapter provides an overview of global climate models and their predictions for climate through the 21st century. The review examines the scientific basis of global climate modeling, including the bases for uncertainty in future climate projections. A summary of the Special Report Emissions Sce...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Capítulo de libro |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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CAB International
2010
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/33382 |
| _version_ | 1855535289144967168 |
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| author | Jarvis, Andy Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Anderson, B. Leibing, C. Aggarwal, Pramod K. |
| author_browse | Aggarwal, Pramod K. Anderson, B. Jarvis, Andy Leibing, C. Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando |
| author_facet | Jarvis, Andy Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Anderson, B. Leibing, C. Aggarwal, Pramod K. |
| author_sort | Jarvis, Andy |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This chapter provides an overview of global climate models and their predictions for climate through the 21st century. The review examines the scientific basis of global climate modeling, including the bases for uncertainty in future climate projections. A summary of the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) is also provided. The current scientific knowledge on climate change points to increases in temperature of 1-3°C to 2050 combined with some complex spatially explicit changes in rainfall. There remains high uncertainty in predictions of extreme events, especially hurricanes. The chapter then looks at the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, pest and disease prevalence, and CO2-based fertilization. The impacts on crop productivity are likely to be negative. While moderate increases in temperature may bring about moderate increases in productivity, beyond 1°C of warming the literature tends to agree that impacts will be negative. However, possible CO2-fertilization effects may cancel out these losses, although significant debate exists as to the extent of CO2 fertilization to expect. While most literature predicts increases in the prevalence of agricultural pests and diseases, only a handful of studies have quantified possible impacts and further research is needed in this area. |
| format | Book Chapter |
| id | CGSpace33382 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publishDateRange | 2010 |
| publishDateSort | 2010 |
| publisher | CAB International |
| publisherStr | CAB International |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace333822024-03-06T10:16:43Z Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture Jarvis, Andy Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Anderson, B. Leibing, C. Aggarwal, Pramod K. climate global warming temperature agriculture production This chapter provides an overview of global climate models and their predictions for climate through the 21st century. The review examines the scientific basis of global climate modeling, including the bases for uncertainty in future climate projections. A summary of the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) is also provided. The current scientific knowledge on climate change points to increases in temperature of 1-3°C to 2050 combined with some complex spatially explicit changes in rainfall. There remains high uncertainty in predictions of extreme events, especially hurricanes. The chapter then looks at the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, pest and disease prevalence, and CO2-based fertilization. The impacts on crop productivity are likely to be negative. While moderate increases in temperature may bring about moderate increases in productivity, beyond 1°C of warming the literature tends to agree that impacts will be negative. However, possible CO2-fertilization effects may cancel out these losses, although significant debate exists as to the extent of CO2 fertilization to expect. While most literature predicts increases in the prevalence of agricultural pests and diseases, only a handful of studies have quantified possible impacts and further research is needed in this area. 2010 2013-07-31T11:48:09Z 2013-07-31T11:48:09Z Book Chapter https://hdl.handle.net/10568/33382 en Limited Access CAB International Jarvis A, Ramirez J, Anderson B, Leibing C, Aggarwal PK. 2010. Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture. In: Reynolds MP, ed. Climate change and crop production. Wallingford UK: CAB International. p 9–37. |
| spellingShingle | climate global warming temperature agriculture production Jarvis, Andy Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Anderson, B. Leibing, C. Aggarwal, Pramod K. Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture |
| title | Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture |
| title_full | Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture |
| title_fullStr | Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture |
| title_short | Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture |
| title_sort | scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture |
| topic | climate global warming temperature agriculture production |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/33382 |
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