Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture
We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenar...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
National Academy of Sciences
2013
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/33287 |
| _version_ | 1855530914351677440 |
|---|---|
| author | Vermeulen, Sonja J. Challinor, Andrew J. Thornton, Philip K. Campbell, Bruce M. Eriyagama, Nishadi Vervoort, Joost M. Kinyangi, James Jarvis, Andy Läderach, Peter R.D. Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Nicklin, K.J. Hawkins, E. Smith, D.R. |
| author_browse | Campbell, Bruce M. Challinor, Andrew J. Eriyagama, Nishadi Hawkins, E. Jarvis, Andy Kinyangi, James Läderach, Peter R.D. Nicklin, K.J. Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Smith, D.R. Thornton, Philip K. Vermeulen, Sonja J. Vervoort, Joost M. |
| author_facet | Vermeulen, Sonja J. Challinor, Andrew J. Thornton, Philip K. Campbell, Bruce M. Eriyagama, Nishadi Vervoort, Joost M. Kinyangi, James Jarvis, Andy Läderach, Peter R.D. Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Nicklin, K.J. Hawkins, E. Smith, D.R. |
| author_sort | Vermeulen, Sonja J. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace33287 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateRange | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| publisherStr | National Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace332872025-03-11T09:50:20Z Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture Vermeulen, Sonja J. Challinor, Andrew J. Thornton, Philip K. Campbell, Bruce M. Eriyagama, Nishadi Vervoort, Joost M. Kinyangi, James Jarvis, Andy Läderach, Peter R.D. Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Nicklin, K.J. Hawkins, E. Smith, D.R. agriculture climate change We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty. 2013-05-21 2013-07-08T08:09:55Z 2013-07-08T08:09:55Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/33287 en Open Access National Academy of Sciences Vermeulen, S.J., Challinor, A.J., Thornton, P.K., Campbell, B.M., Eriyagama, N., Vervoort, J.M., Kinyangi, J., Jarvis, A., Läderach, P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Nicklin, K.J., Hawkins, E. and Smith, D.R. 2013. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. PNAS 110(21): 8357 - 8362 |
| spellingShingle | agriculture climate change Vermeulen, Sonja J. Challinor, Andrew J. Thornton, Philip K. Campbell, Bruce M. Eriyagama, Nishadi Vervoort, Joost M. Kinyangi, James Jarvis, Andy Läderach, Peter R.D. Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Nicklin, K.J. Hawkins, E. Smith, D.R. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture |
| title | Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture |
| title_full | Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture |
| title_fullStr | Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture |
| title_full_unstemmed | Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture |
| title_short | Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture |
| title_sort | addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture |
| topic | agriculture climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/33287 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT vermeulensonjaj addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT challinorandrewj addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT thorntonphilipk addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT campbellbrucem addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT eriyagamanishadi addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT vervoortjoostm addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT kinyangijames addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT jarvisandy addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT laderachpeterrd addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT ramirezvillegasjulianarmando addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT nicklinkj addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT hawkinse addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture AT smithdr addressinguncertaintyinadaptationplanningforagriculture |