A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa

The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for...

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Main Authors: Mariner, Jeffrey C., McDermott, John J., Heesterbeek, J.A.P., Catley, A., Roeder, P.
Format: Journal Article
Language:Inglés
Published: Elsevier 2005
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/33126
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author Mariner, Jeffrey C.
McDermott, John J.
Heesterbeek, J.A.P.
Catley, A.
Roeder, P.
author_browse Catley, A.
Heesterbeek, J.A.P.
Mariner, Jeffrey C.
McDermott, John J.
Roeder, P.
author_facet Mariner, Jeffrey C.
McDermott, John J.
Heesterbeek, J.A.P.
Catley, A.
Roeder, P.
author_sort Mariner, Jeffrey C.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1-2 years and 5 years, respectively).
format Journal Article
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spelling CGSpace331262024-05-01T08:16:14Z A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa Mariner, Jeffrey C. McDermott, John J. Heesterbeek, J.A.P. Catley, A. Roeder, P. rinderpest morbillivirus disease transmission pastures mathematical models epidemiology policies reproduction progeny The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1-2 years and 5 years, respectively). 2005-07 2013-07-03T05:26:06Z 2013-07-03T05:26:06Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/33126 en Limited Access Elsevier Preventive Veterinary Medicine;69(3-4): 245-263
spellingShingle rinderpest
morbillivirus
disease transmission
pastures
mathematical models
epidemiology
policies
reproduction
progeny
Mariner, Jeffrey C.
McDermott, John J.
Heesterbeek, J.A.P.
Catley, A.
Roeder, P.
A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa
title A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa
title_full A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa
title_fullStr A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa
title_full_unstemmed A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa
title_short A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa
title_sort model of lineage 1 and lineage 2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of east africa
topic rinderpest
morbillivirus
disease transmission
pastures
mathematical models
epidemiology
policies
reproduction
progeny
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/33126
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