Threshold effects of extreme heat on schooling and child labor in rural Bangladesh
Identifying threshold effects of extreme heat is key to understanding the true scale of climate-related risks to human capital development. This paper investigates how extreme heat shapes adolescent schooling and labor outcomes in rural Bangladesh, combining household survey data on adolescents with...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/180558 |
| _version_ | 1855525871916417024 |
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| author | Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab Karim, Ridwan |
| author_browse | Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab Karim, Ridwan |
| author_facet | Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab Karim, Ridwan |
| author_sort | Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Identifying threshold effects of extreme heat is key to understanding the true scale of climate-related risks to human capital development. This paper investigates how extreme heat shapes adolescent schooling and labor outcomes in rural Bangladesh, combining household survey data on adolescents with high-resolution temperature records to estimate the effects of prior-year, cumulative, and early-life heat exposure. We identify a precise temperature threshold at 36°C, above which each additional day reduces school attendance by 3.1 percentage points and increases child labor by 2.5 percentage points. Below this threshold, moderate heat (30-36°C) shows minimal single-year effects, though cumulative exposure over three years reveals significant negative impacts, indicating limited household adaptation. Effects are disproportionately concentrated among girls, who shift primarily toward household work rather than wage labor. Three interconnected channels drive these effects: heat-induced income shocks (11% reduction in household income), increased domestic labor demands from heat-related illness, and restrictive gender norms that amplify these impacts by magnifying girls’ household responsibilities. Extending the analysis to early-life conditions, exposure during the first 1,000 days also reduces adolescent schooling probability by 3.4-3.8 percentage points, with strongest effects at ages one and two. Boys show slightly larger early-life effects, contrasting with girls’ greater vulnerability to contemporaneous exposure, suggesting distinct mechanisms operating through biological development versus gendered household labor allocation. The findings point to both immediate income-mediated responses and long-term developmental pathways, with implications for temperature-triggered social protection, school infrastructure investments, and early-life health interventions. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace180558 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1805582026-01-24T02:07:43Z Threshold effects of extreme heat on schooling and child labor in rural Bangladesh Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab Karim, Ridwan heat stress schools children rural areas labour heatwaves child labour climate change adolescents Identifying threshold effects of extreme heat is key to understanding the true scale of climate-related risks to human capital development. This paper investigates how extreme heat shapes adolescent schooling and labor outcomes in rural Bangladesh, combining household survey data on adolescents with high-resolution temperature records to estimate the effects of prior-year, cumulative, and early-life heat exposure. We identify a precise temperature threshold at 36°C, above which each additional day reduces school attendance by 3.1 percentage points and increases child labor by 2.5 percentage points. Below this threshold, moderate heat (30-36°C) shows minimal single-year effects, though cumulative exposure over three years reveals significant negative impacts, indicating limited household adaptation. Effects are disproportionately concentrated among girls, who shift primarily toward household work rather than wage labor. Three interconnected channels drive these effects: heat-induced income shocks (11% reduction in household income), increased domestic labor demands from heat-related illness, and restrictive gender norms that amplify these impacts by magnifying girls’ household responsibilities. Extending the analysis to early-life conditions, exposure during the first 1,000 days also reduces adolescent schooling probability by 3.4-3.8 percentage points, with strongest effects at ages one and two. Boys show slightly larger early-life effects, contrasting with girls’ greater vulnerability to contemporaneous exposure, suggesting distinct mechanisms operating through biological development versus gendered household labor allocation. The findings point to both immediate income-mediated responses and long-term developmental pathways, with implications for temperature-triggered social protection, school infrastructure investments, and early-life health interventions. 2025-12-31 2026-01-23T19:58:04Z 2026-01-23T19:58:04Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/180558 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; and Karim, Ridwan. 2025. Threshold effects of extreme heat on schooling and child labor in rural Bangladesh. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2401. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/180558 |
| spellingShingle | heat stress schools children rural areas labour heatwaves child labour climate change adolescents Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab Karim, Ridwan Threshold effects of extreme heat on schooling and child labor in rural Bangladesh |
| title | Threshold effects of extreme heat on schooling and child labor in rural Bangladesh |
| title_full | Threshold effects of extreme heat on schooling and child labor in rural Bangladesh |
| title_fullStr | Threshold effects of extreme heat on schooling and child labor in rural Bangladesh |
| title_full_unstemmed | Threshold effects of extreme heat on schooling and child labor in rural Bangladesh |
| title_short | Threshold effects of extreme heat on schooling and child labor in rural Bangladesh |
| title_sort | threshold effects of extreme heat on schooling and child labor in rural bangladesh |
| topic | heat stress schools children rural areas labour heatwaves child labour climate change adolescents |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/180558 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bakhtiarmmehrab thresholdeffectsofextremeheatonschoolingandchildlaborinruralbangladesh AT karimridwan thresholdeffectsofextremeheatonschoolingandchildlaborinruralbangladesh |