Trade-induced forest-to pasture conversion in Brazil: Insights from the global beef supply chains

International trade is a defining feature of contemporary food systems and can generate substantial environmental pressures in tropical forest regions. This study examines how demand transmitted through global beef supply chains is associated with forest-to-pasture conversion in Brazil. Using panel...

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Autores principales: Chen, Ziqi, Chen, Shuai, Chen, Kevin Z.
Formato: Artículo preliminar
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: CGIAR System Organization 2025
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/180255
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author Chen, Ziqi
Chen, Shuai
Chen, Kevin Z.
author_browse Chen, Kevin Z.
Chen, Shuai
Chen, Ziqi
author_facet Chen, Ziqi
Chen, Shuai
Chen, Kevin Z.
author_sort Chen, Ziqi
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description International trade is a defining feature of contemporary food systems and can generate substantial environmental pressures in tropical forest regions. This study examines how demand transmitted through global beef supply chains is associated with forest-to-pasture conversion in Brazil. Using panel data for 5,570 Brazilian municipalities from 2013 to 2020, we integrate supply-chain information with satellite-based land-use data to estimate the effects of beef export exposure on forest-to-pasture conversion, exploiting exogenous variation in export demand. We find that a 1% increase in Brazilian beef exports to China is associated with a 0.0194% increase in forest-to-pasture conversion in Brazil, while a 1% increase in Brazilian beef exports to the European Union and the United Arab Emirates are associated with a 0.0547% and 0.0227% increase, respectively, in forest-to-pasture conversion. These comparative analyses across major destination markets suggest that trade–forest relationships vary across markets and local contexts rather than being driven by a single importing country. These effects are spatially heterogeneous, with stronger impacts in economically less developed municipalities and in areas with limited remaining forest cover. Together, the results highlight how demand shocks transmitted through global food supply chains can shape land-use dynamics in tropical forest countries, underscoring the importance of aligning trade and food system policies with forest conservation objectives.
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spelling CGSpace1802552026-01-21T16:55:52Z Trade-induced forest-to pasture conversion in Brazil: Insights from the global beef supply chains Chen, Ziqi Chen, Shuai Chen, Kevin Z. climate change land use forests beef land-use change trade global value chains International trade is a defining feature of contemporary food systems and can generate substantial environmental pressures in tropical forest regions. This study examines how demand transmitted through global beef supply chains is associated with forest-to-pasture conversion in Brazil. Using panel data for 5,570 Brazilian municipalities from 2013 to 2020, we integrate supply-chain information with satellite-based land-use data to estimate the effects of beef export exposure on forest-to-pasture conversion, exploiting exogenous variation in export demand. We find that a 1% increase in Brazilian beef exports to China is associated with a 0.0194% increase in forest-to-pasture conversion in Brazil, while a 1% increase in Brazilian beef exports to the European Union and the United Arab Emirates are associated with a 0.0547% and 0.0227% increase, respectively, in forest-to-pasture conversion. These comparative analyses across major destination markets suggest that trade–forest relationships vary across markets and local contexts rather than being driven by a single importing country. These effects are spatially heterogeneous, with stronger impacts in economically less developed municipalities and in areas with limited remaining forest cover. Together, the results highlight how demand shocks transmitted through global food supply chains can shape land-use dynamics in tropical forest countries, underscoring the importance of aligning trade and food system policies with forest conservation objectives. 2025-12-31 2026-01-20T22:04:31Z 2026-01-20T22:04:31Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/180255 en Open Access application/pdf CGIAR System Organization Chen, Ziqi; Chen, Shuai; and Chen, Kevin Z. 2025. Trade-induced forest-to pasture conversion in Brazil: Insights from the global beef supply chains. CGIAR System Organization. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/180255
spellingShingle climate change
land use
forests
beef
land-use change
trade
global value chains
Chen, Ziqi
Chen, Shuai
Chen, Kevin Z.
Trade-induced forest-to pasture conversion in Brazil: Insights from the global beef supply chains
title Trade-induced forest-to pasture conversion in Brazil: Insights from the global beef supply chains
title_full Trade-induced forest-to pasture conversion in Brazil: Insights from the global beef supply chains
title_fullStr Trade-induced forest-to pasture conversion in Brazil: Insights from the global beef supply chains
title_full_unstemmed Trade-induced forest-to pasture conversion in Brazil: Insights from the global beef supply chains
title_short Trade-induced forest-to pasture conversion in Brazil: Insights from the global beef supply chains
title_sort trade induced forest to pasture conversion in brazil insights from the global beef supply chains
topic climate change
land use
forests
beef
land-use change
trade
global value chains
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/180255
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AT chenshuai tradeinducedforesttopastureconversioninbrazilinsightsfromtheglobalbeefsupplychains
AT chenkevinz tradeinducedforesttopastureconversioninbrazilinsightsfromtheglobalbeefsupplychains