Projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high-tide flooding in coastal areas of the USA: An economic modelling study
Background Studies have documented the effect of increased nuisance high-tide flooding on traffic disruption and delays as well as infrastructure maintenance and repair costs. Recent research suggests that high-tide flooding is also associated with more extreme outcomes, including increased mortalit...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier
2025
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179717 |
| _version_ | 1855532908993839104 |
|---|---|
| author | Sheahan, Megan B. Hauer, Mathew Mueller, Valerie Sheriff, Glenn Fant, Charles Holland, Isabel Sarofim, Marcus C. Hartin, Corinne Neumann, James E. |
| author_browse | Fant, Charles Hartin, Corinne Hauer, Mathew Holland, Isabel Mueller, Valerie Neumann, James E. Sarofim, Marcus C. Sheahan, Megan B. Sheriff, Glenn |
| author_facet | Sheahan, Megan B. Hauer, Mathew Mueller, Valerie Sheriff, Glenn Fant, Charles Holland, Isabel Sarofim, Marcus C. Hartin, Corinne Neumann, James E. |
| author_sort | Sheahan, Megan B. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Background
Studies have documented the effect of increased nuisance high-tide flooding on traffic disruption and delays as well as infrastructure maintenance and repair costs. Recent research suggests that high-tide flooding is also associated with more extreme outcomes, including increased mortality risk among adults aged 65 years and older. The aim of this study was to leverage these new findings to project future premature deaths and associated economic costs among older adults in coastal areas of the USA throughout the 21st century under various climate change scenarios.
Methods
We estimated the relationship between global sea level rise and high-tide flooding. We then employed five projections of relative mean sea level from the Fifth National Climate Assessment to develop a probabilistic distribution of high-tide flooding scenarios. Combining population and baseline mortality projections with published estimates of the association between high-tide flooding and premature mortality among adults aged 65 years and older in Florida, USA, we generated a distribution of predicted high-tide flooding mortality impacts across coastal areas of the USA. Because this analysis assumes no change in adaptation strategies, we also presented a stylised scenario that assumes additional action is taken to limit mortality risk.
Findings
Our main specification (without additional adaptation) anticipates approximately 230 additional deaths of older adults per year in 2020 relative to 2005, corresponding to monetised damages of US$3·1 billion. By 2100, the model projects nearly 10 000 additional deaths in this age group per year under the same scenario, a 43-fold increase relative to modelled 2005 levels. With some protective measures, the model predicts 5700 additional premature deaths, representing a 57% reduction relative to the main results.
Interpretation
The cost of premature mortality in older adults is greater in magnitude than other modelled effects of climate-induced high-tide flooding (eg, value of lost time due to traffic delays). Results suggest further action is needed to (1) identify and protect components of road networks critical for emergency access, (2) build additional, more accessible critical care delivery facilities, and (3) manage the retreat of vulnerable populations to areas with better access to critical care facilities. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace179717 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1797172026-01-12T21:51:36Z Projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high-tide flooding in coastal areas of the USA: An economic modelling study Sheahan, Megan B. Hauer, Mathew Mueller, Valerie Sheriff, Glenn Fant, Charles Holland, Isabel Sarofim, Marcus C. Hartin, Corinne Neumann, James E. mortality flooding climate change elderly coastal climate modelling Background Studies have documented the effect of increased nuisance high-tide flooding on traffic disruption and delays as well as infrastructure maintenance and repair costs. Recent research suggests that high-tide flooding is also associated with more extreme outcomes, including increased mortality risk among adults aged 65 years and older. The aim of this study was to leverage these new findings to project future premature deaths and associated economic costs among older adults in coastal areas of the USA throughout the 21st century under various climate change scenarios. Methods We estimated the relationship between global sea level rise and high-tide flooding. We then employed five projections of relative mean sea level from the Fifth National Climate Assessment to develop a probabilistic distribution of high-tide flooding scenarios. Combining population and baseline mortality projections with published estimates of the association between high-tide flooding and premature mortality among adults aged 65 years and older in Florida, USA, we generated a distribution of predicted high-tide flooding mortality impacts across coastal areas of the USA. Because this analysis assumes no change in adaptation strategies, we also presented a stylised scenario that assumes additional action is taken to limit mortality risk. Findings Our main specification (without additional adaptation) anticipates approximately 230 additional deaths of older adults per year in 2020 relative to 2005, corresponding to monetised damages of US$3·1 billion. By 2100, the model projects nearly 10 000 additional deaths in this age group per year under the same scenario, a 43-fold increase relative to modelled 2005 levels. With some protective measures, the model predicts 5700 additional premature deaths, representing a 57% reduction relative to the main results. Interpretation The cost of premature mortality in older adults is greater in magnitude than other modelled effects of climate-induced high-tide flooding (eg, value of lost time due to traffic delays). Results suggest further action is needed to (1) identify and protect components of road networks critical for emergency access, (2) build additional, more accessible critical care delivery facilities, and (3) manage the retreat of vulnerable populations to areas with better access to critical care facilities. 2025-12-23 2026-01-12T21:51:35Z 2026-01-12T21:51:35Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179717 en Open Access Elsevier Sheahan, Megan B.; Hauer, Mathew; Mueller, Valerie; Sheriff, Glenn; Fant, Charles; et al. 2025.Projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high-tide flooding in coastal areas of the USA: an economic modelling study. Lancet Planetary Health 9(12): 101382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101382 |
| spellingShingle | mortality flooding climate change elderly coastal climate modelling Sheahan, Megan B. Hauer, Mathew Mueller, Valerie Sheriff, Glenn Fant, Charles Holland, Isabel Sarofim, Marcus C. Hartin, Corinne Neumann, James E. Projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high-tide flooding in coastal areas of the USA: An economic modelling study |
| title | Projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high-tide flooding in coastal areas of the USA: An economic modelling study |
| title_full | Projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high-tide flooding in coastal areas of the USA: An economic modelling study |
| title_fullStr | Projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high-tide flooding in coastal areas of the USA: An economic modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high-tide flooding in coastal areas of the USA: An economic modelling study |
| title_short | Projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high-tide flooding in coastal areas of the USA: An economic modelling study |
| title_sort | projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high tide flooding in coastal areas of the usa an economic modelling study |
| topic | mortality flooding climate change elderly coastal climate modelling |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179717 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sheahanmeganb projectionsoffuturemortalityriskinolderadultsfromhightidefloodingincoastalareasoftheusaaneconomicmodellingstudy AT hauermathew projectionsoffuturemortalityriskinolderadultsfromhightidefloodingincoastalareasoftheusaaneconomicmodellingstudy AT muellervalerie projectionsoffuturemortalityriskinolderadultsfromhightidefloodingincoastalareasoftheusaaneconomicmodellingstudy AT sheriffglenn projectionsoffuturemortalityriskinolderadultsfromhightidefloodingincoastalareasoftheusaaneconomicmodellingstudy AT fantcharles projectionsoffuturemortalityriskinolderadultsfromhightidefloodingincoastalareasoftheusaaneconomicmodellingstudy AT hollandisabel projectionsoffuturemortalityriskinolderadultsfromhightidefloodingincoastalareasoftheusaaneconomicmodellingstudy AT sarofimmarcusc projectionsoffuturemortalityriskinolderadultsfromhightidefloodingincoastalareasoftheusaaneconomicmodellingstudy AT hartincorinne projectionsoffuturemortalityriskinolderadultsfromhightidefloodingincoastalareasoftheusaaneconomicmodellingstudy AT neumannjamese projectionsoffuturemortalityriskinolderadultsfromhightidefloodingincoastalareasoftheusaaneconomicmodellingstudy |