Mapping the risky returns to smallholder fertilizer investments in Africa
Low and inconsistent use of inorganic fertilizer continues to constrain agricultural productivity growth in sub-Saharan Africa, despite strong agronomic evidence of yield responsiveness in maize-based systems. A central challenge is that fertilizer decisions are made under substantial production and...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Informe técnico |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179409 |
| _version_ | 1855527658016735232 |
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| author | Gebrekidan, Bisrat Chamberlin, Jordan Mkondwa, Maxwell Silva, Joao Vasco Hijmans, Robert |
| author_browse | Chamberlin, Jordan Gebrekidan, Bisrat Hijmans, Robert Mkondwa, Maxwell Silva, Joao Vasco |
| author_facet | Gebrekidan, Bisrat Chamberlin, Jordan Mkondwa, Maxwell Silva, Joao Vasco Hijmans, Robert |
| author_sort | Gebrekidan, Bisrat |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Low and inconsistent use of inorganic fertilizer continues to constrain agricultural productivity growth in sub-Saharan Africa, despite strong agronomic evidence of yield responsiveness in maize-based systems. A central challenge is that fertilizer decisions are made under substantial production and market uncertainty, yet most policy targeting and advisory tools rely on average profitability metrics that mask exposure to downside risk. This paper develops a spatially explicit, ex ante framework to support risk-informed fertilizer policy and investment decisions under rainfed smallholder conditions. We integrate georeferenced maize fertilizer trial responses with spatial data on soils, long-run rainfall variability, remotely sensed vegetation, and locally differentiated input and output prices to characterize the full distributions of fertilizer returns across space. Production risk, price volatility, and crop failure are modeled explicitly, including their joint dependence through spatial rainfall and price relationships. The results show that areas with high expected returns frequently face a substantial probability of financial loss, driven by the interaction of climatic variability, market volatility, and catastrophic production risk. Accounting for these risks identifies spatial “risk traps” where fertilizer is technically productive but economically unattractive for risk-averse farmers. The framework provides guidance for the spatial targeting of fertilizer subsidies, extension, insurance, and complementary market interventions, helping policymakers and investors prioritize locations where fertilizer use can be both profitable and resilient, and tailor risk-mitigation instruments where uncertainty remains binding. |
| format | Informe técnico |
| id | CGSpace179409 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center |
| publisherStr | International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1794092026-01-06T02:08:54Z Mapping the risky returns to smallholder fertilizer investments in Africa Gebrekidan, Bisrat Chamberlin, Jordan Mkondwa, Maxwell Silva, Joao Vasco Hijmans, Robert smallholders fertilizers farm inputs Low and inconsistent use of inorganic fertilizer continues to constrain agricultural productivity growth in sub-Saharan Africa, despite strong agronomic evidence of yield responsiveness in maize-based systems. A central challenge is that fertilizer decisions are made under substantial production and market uncertainty, yet most policy targeting and advisory tools rely on average profitability metrics that mask exposure to downside risk. This paper develops a spatially explicit, ex ante framework to support risk-informed fertilizer policy and investment decisions under rainfed smallholder conditions. We integrate georeferenced maize fertilizer trial responses with spatial data on soils, long-run rainfall variability, remotely sensed vegetation, and locally differentiated input and output prices to characterize the full distributions of fertilizer returns across space. Production risk, price volatility, and crop failure are modeled explicitly, including their joint dependence through spatial rainfall and price relationships. The results show that areas with high expected returns frequently face a substantial probability of financial loss, driven by the interaction of climatic variability, market volatility, and catastrophic production risk. Accounting for these risks identifies spatial “risk traps” where fertilizer is technically productive but economically unattractive for risk-averse farmers. The framework provides guidance for the spatial targeting of fertilizer subsidies, extension, insurance, and complementary market interventions, helping policymakers and investors prioritize locations where fertilizer use can be both profitable and resilient, and tailor risk-mitigation instruments where uncertainty remains binding. 2025-12-31 2026-01-05T22:25:35Z 2026-01-05T22:25:35Z Report https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179409 en Open Access application/pdf International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center Gebrekidan, Bisrat; Chamberlin, Jordan; Mkondwa, Maxwell; Silva, Joao Vasco; and Hijmans, Robert. 2025. Mapping the risky returns to smallholder fertilizer investments in Africa. CGIAR Policy Innovation Program Report. CIMMYT. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179409 |
| spellingShingle | smallholders fertilizers farm inputs Gebrekidan, Bisrat Chamberlin, Jordan Mkondwa, Maxwell Silva, Joao Vasco Hijmans, Robert Mapping the risky returns to smallholder fertilizer investments in Africa |
| title | Mapping the risky returns to smallholder fertilizer investments in Africa |
| title_full | Mapping the risky returns to smallholder fertilizer investments in Africa |
| title_fullStr | Mapping the risky returns to smallholder fertilizer investments in Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mapping the risky returns to smallholder fertilizer investments in Africa |
| title_short | Mapping the risky returns to smallholder fertilizer investments in Africa |
| title_sort | mapping the risky returns to smallholder fertilizer investments in africa |
| topic | smallholders fertilizers farm inputs |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179409 |
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