Prediction of Australian wheat genotype by environment interactions and mega-environments

Wheat is grown across a diverse range of environments in Australia with contrasting environmental constraints. Targeted breeding to optimise genotypes in target environments is hindered by large and ubiquitous genotype by environment interactions (GEI). Common GEI in multi-environment trial experime...

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Autores principales: Fradgley, Nick, Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián, Velu, Govindan, Nicol, Julie M., Singh, Amit Kumar, Tadesse, Wuletaw, Zwart, Alexander B., Trethowan, Richard, Trevaskis, Ben, Whan, Alex, Hyles, Jessica
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Springer 2025
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179262
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author Fradgley, Nick
Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián
Velu, Govindan
Nicol, Julie M.
Singh, Amit Kumar
Tadesse, Wuletaw
Zwart, Alexander B.
Trethowan, Richard
Trevaskis, Ben
Whan, Alex
Hyles, Jessica
author_browse Fradgley, Nick
Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián
Hyles, Jessica
Nicol, Julie M.
Singh, Amit Kumar
Tadesse, Wuletaw
Trethowan, Richard
Trevaskis, Ben
Velu, Govindan
Whan, Alex
Zwart, Alexander B.
author_facet Fradgley, Nick
Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián
Velu, Govindan
Nicol, Julie M.
Singh, Amit Kumar
Tadesse, Wuletaw
Zwart, Alexander B.
Trethowan, Richard
Trevaskis, Ben
Whan, Alex
Hyles, Jessica
author_sort Fradgley, Nick
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Wheat is grown across a diverse range of environments in Australia with contrasting environmental constraints. Targeted breeding to optimise genotypes in target environments is hindered by large and ubiquitous genotype by environment interactions (GEI). Common GEI in multi-environment trial experiments, which sample the target population of environments, can be efficiently modelled using latent environmental effects from factor analytic mixed models. However, generalised prediction into the full target population of environments is difficult without a clear link to observed environmental covariates (ECs) that are defined from high-resolution weather and soil data. Here, we used a large wheat multi-environment trial dataset and demonstrated that latent environmental effects can be associated with and predicted from observed ECs. We found GEI-based environment classes could be defined by combinations of key ECs. Prediction of main and latent effects in a wider set of environments covering the full TPE across the Australian grain belt over 13 years revealed the complex trends of environmental effects and GEI over regional scales demonstrating high year-to-year variability. Regional environment types often shifted year-to-year. Cross-validation of forward genomic prediction into untested year environments demonstrated that increased accuracy is possible if estimated genetic effects are also accurate and ECs of new environments are known. These findings may guide Australian wheat breeders to better target specifically adapted material to mega-environments defined by static GEI while also considering broad adaptability and non-static GEI resulting from year-to-year variability.
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spelling CGSpace1792622025-12-24T02:08:42Z Prediction of Australian wheat genotype by environment interactions and mega-environments Fradgley, Nick Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián Velu, Govindan Nicol, Julie M. Singh, Amit Kumar Tadesse, Wuletaw Zwart, Alexander B. Trethowan, Richard Trevaskis, Ben Whan, Alex Hyles, Jessica wheat genotype environment interaction environment genetic diversity (resource) Wheat is grown across a diverse range of environments in Australia with contrasting environmental constraints. Targeted breeding to optimise genotypes in target environments is hindered by large and ubiquitous genotype by environment interactions (GEI). Common GEI in multi-environment trial experiments, which sample the target population of environments, can be efficiently modelled using latent environmental effects from factor analytic mixed models. However, generalised prediction into the full target population of environments is difficult without a clear link to observed environmental covariates (ECs) that are defined from high-resolution weather and soil data. Here, we used a large wheat multi-environment trial dataset and demonstrated that latent environmental effects can be associated with and predicted from observed ECs. We found GEI-based environment classes could be defined by combinations of key ECs. Prediction of main and latent effects in a wider set of environments covering the full TPE across the Australian grain belt over 13 years revealed the complex trends of environmental effects and GEI over regional scales demonstrating high year-to-year variability. Regional environment types often shifted year-to-year. Cross-validation of forward genomic prediction into untested year environments demonstrated that increased accuracy is possible if estimated genetic effects are also accurate and ECs of new environments are known. These findings may guide Australian wheat breeders to better target specifically adapted material to mega-environments defined by static GEI while also considering broad adaptability and non-static GEI resulting from year-to-year variability. 2025-09 2025-12-23T20:01:35Z 2025-12-23T20:01:35Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179262 en Open Access application/pdf Springer Fradgley, N. S., Gerard, G. S., Govindan, V., Nicol, J. M., Singh, A., Tadesse, W., Zwart, A. B., Trethowan, R., Trevaskis, B., Whan, A., & Hyles, J. (2025). Prediction of Australian wheat genotype by environment interactions and mega-environments. Theoretical and Applied Genetics, 138(9), 241. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00122-025-05023-6
spellingShingle wheat
genotype environment interaction
environment
genetic diversity (resource)
Fradgley, Nick
Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián
Velu, Govindan
Nicol, Julie M.
Singh, Amit Kumar
Tadesse, Wuletaw
Zwart, Alexander B.
Trethowan, Richard
Trevaskis, Ben
Whan, Alex
Hyles, Jessica
Prediction of Australian wheat genotype by environment interactions and mega-environments
title Prediction of Australian wheat genotype by environment interactions and mega-environments
title_full Prediction of Australian wheat genotype by environment interactions and mega-environments
title_fullStr Prediction of Australian wheat genotype by environment interactions and mega-environments
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of Australian wheat genotype by environment interactions and mega-environments
title_short Prediction of Australian wheat genotype by environment interactions and mega-environments
title_sort prediction of australian wheat genotype by environment interactions and mega environments
topic wheat
genotype environment interaction
environment
genetic diversity (resource)
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179262
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