Improving wheat grain yield genomic prediction accuracy using historical data

Genomic selection is an essential tool to improve genetic gain in wheat breeding. This study aimed to enhance prediction accuracy for grain yield across various selection environments using CIMMYT's (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center) historical dataset. Ten years of grain yield data...

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Autores principales: Vitale, Paolo, Montesinos-Lopez, Osval Antonio, Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián, Velu, Govindan, Tarekegn, Zerihun Tadesse, Montesinos-Lopez, Abelardo, Dreisigacker, Susanne, Pacheco Gil, Rosa Angela, Toledo, Fernando Henrique, Saint Pierre, Carolina, Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino, Gardner, Keith, Crespo Herrera, Leonardo Abdiel, Crossa, Jose
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2025
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179135
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author Vitale, Paolo
Montesinos-Lopez, Osval Antonio
Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián
Velu, Govindan
Tarekegn, Zerihun Tadesse
Montesinos-Lopez, Abelardo
Dreisigacker, Susanne
Pacheco Gil, Rosa Angela
Toledo, Fernando Henrique
Saint Pierre, Carolina
Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino
Gardner, Keith
Crespo Herrera, Leonardo Abdiel
Crossa, Jose
author_browse Crespo Herrera, Leonardo Abdiel
Crossa, Jose
Dreisigacker, Susanne
Gardner, Keith
Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián
Montesinos-Lopez, Abelardo
Montesinos-Lopez, Osval Antonio
Pacheco Gil, Rosa Angela
Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino
Saint Pierre, Carolina
Tarekegn, Zerihun Tadesse
Toledo, Fernando Henrique
Velu, Govindan
Vitale, Paolo
author_facet Vitale, Paolo
Montesinos-Lopez, Osval Antonio
Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián
Velu, Govindan
Tarekegn, Zerihun Tadesse
Montesinos-Lopez, Abelardo
Dreisigacker, Susanne
Pacheco Gil, Rosa Angela
Toledo, Fernando Henrique
Saint Pierre, Carolina
Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino
Gardner, Keith
Crespo Herrera, Leonardo Abdiel
Crossa, Jose
author_sort Vitale, Paolo
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Genomic selection is an essential tool to improve genetic gain in wheat breeding. This study aimed to enhance prediction accuracy for grain yield across various selection environments using CIMMYT's (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center) historical dataset. Ten years of grain yield data from 6 selection environments were analyzed, with the populations of 5 years (2018-2023) as the validation population and earlier years (back to 2013-2014) as the training population. Generally, we observed that as the number of training years increased, the prediction accuracy tended to improve or stabilize. For instance, in the late heat stress selection environment (beds late heat stress), prediction accuracy increased from 0.11 (1 training year) to 0.23 (5 years), stabilizing at 0.26. Similar trends were observed in the intermediate drought selection environment (beds with 2 irrigations), with prediction accuracy rising from 0.12 (1 year) to 0.21 (4 years) but minimal improvement beyond that. Conversely, some selection environments, such as flat 5 irrigations (flat optimal environment), did not significantly increase, with the prediction accuracy fluctuating around 0.09-0.14 regardless of the number of training years used. Additionally, average genetic diversity within the training population and the validation population influenced prediction accuracy. Indeed, a negative correlation between prediction accuracy and the genetic distance was observed. This highlights the need to balance genetic diversity to enhance the predictive power of genomic selection models. These findings exhibit the benefits of using an extended historical dataset while considering genetic diversity to maximize prediction accuracy in genomic selection strategies for wheat breeding, ultimately supporting the development of high-yielding varieties.
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spelling CGSpace1791352025-12-22T02:14:29Z Improving wheat grain yield genomic prediction accuracy using historical data Vitale, Paolo Montesinos-Lopez, Osval Antonio Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián Velu, Govindan Tarekegn, Zerihun Tadesse Montesinos-Lopez, Abelardo Dreisigacker, Susanne Pacheco Gil, Rosa Angela Toledo, Fernando Henrique Saint Pierre, Carolina Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino Gardner, Keith Crespo Herrera, Leonardo Abdiel Crossa, Jose genomics forecasting plant breeding wheat data grain yields Genomic selection is an essential tool to improve genetic gain in wheat breeding. This study aimed to enhance prediction accuracy for grain yield across various selection environments using CIMMYT's (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center) historical dataset. Ten years of grain yield data from 6 selection environments were analyzed, with the populations of 5 years (2018-2023) as the validation population and earlier years (back to 2013-2014) as the training population. Generally, we observed that as the number of training years increased, the prediction accuracy tended to improve or stabilize. For instance, in the late heat stress selection environment (beds late heat stress), prediction accuracy increased from 0.11 (1 training year) to 0.23 (5 years), stabilizing at 0.26. Similar trends were observed in the intermediate drought selection environment (beds with 2 irrigations), with prediction accuracy rising from 0.12 (1 year) to 0.21 (4 years) but minimal improvement beyond that. Conversely, some selection environments, such as flat 5 irrigations (flat optimal environment), did not significantly increase, with the prediction accuracy fluctuating around 0.09-0.14 regardless of the number of training years used. Additionally, average genetic diversity within the training population and the validation population influenced prediction accuracy. Indeed, a negative correlation between prediction accuracy and the genetic distance was observed. This highlights the need to balance genetic diversity to enhance the predictive power of genomic selection models. These findings exhibit the benefits of using an extended historical dataset while considering genetic diversity to maximize prediction accuracy in genomic selection strategies for wheat breeding, ultimately supporting the development of high-yielding varieties. 2025-04 2025-12-21T20:49:46Z 2025-12-21T20:49:46Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179135 en Open Access application/pdf Oxford University Press Vitale, P., Montesinos-López, O., Gerard, G., Velu, G., Tarekegn, Z., Montesinos-López, A., Dreisigacker, S., Pacheco, A., Toledo, F., Pierre, C. S., Pérez-Rodríguez, P., Gardner, K., Crespo-Herrera, L., & Crossa, J. (2025). Improving wheat grain yield genomic prediction accuracy using historical data. G3 Genes Genomes Genetics, 15(4), jkaf038. https://doi.org/10.1093/g3journal/jkaf038
spellingShingle genomics
forecasting
plant breeding
wheat
data
grain
yields
Vitale, Paolo
Montesinos-Lopez, Osval Antonio
Gerard, Guillermo Sebastián
Velu, Govindan
Tarekegn, Zerihun Tadesse
Montesinos-Lopez, Abelardo
Dreisigacker, Susanne
Pacheco Gil, Rosa Angela
Toledo, Fernando Henrique
Saint Pierre, Carolina
Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino
Gardner, Keith
Crespo Herrera, Leonardo Abdiel
Crossa, Jose
Improving wheat grain yield genomic prediction accuracy using historical data
title Improving wheat grain yield genomic prediction accuracy using historical data
title_full Improving wheat grain yield genomic prediction accuracy using historical data
title_fullStr Improving wheat grain yield genomic prediction accuracy using historical data
title_full_unstemmed Improving wheat grain yield genomic prediction accuracy using historical data
title_short Improving wheat grain yield genomic prediction accuracy using historical data
title_sort improving wheat grain yield genomic prediction accuracy using historical data
topic genomics
forecasting
plant breeding
wheat
data
grain
yields
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179135
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