| Sumario: | This study investigates the long-term impact of phytosanitary capacity development on agricultural trade, economic performance, and rural livelihoods in Africa, using the phytosanitary capacity
evaluation (PCE) framework developed by the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) Secretariat. Drawing on a combination of literature review, stakeholder engagement, and system dynamics modelling, the study analyzes the effects of one time and repeated phytosanitary interventions across two regional clusters: high-value export-oriented economies (Cluster 1) and emerging export economies (Cluster 2). The results demonstrate that while single interventions (Scenario 1) can produce short-term gains in plant health, trade efficiency, and food security, these benefits tend to dissipate without subsequent and sustained investment, and institutional reinforcement. In contrast, Scenario 2 featuring three interventions at 5-year intervals yielded durable improvements across all key indicators, including phytosanitary capacity, export volumes, agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), employment, and migration. The study highlights the importance of embedding phytosanitary reforms into national legal frameworks, aligning efforts with regional trade agreements such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and promoting integrated, cross-sectoral coordination. It concludes that long-term, programmatic approaches are essential for building resilient plant health systems capable of supporting sustainable agriculture, inclusive trade, and economic transformation across the continent.
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