The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala
International migration has become a defining force shaping Guatemala’s economy, with both outflows and return inflows generating diverse impacts across economic sectors, labor markets, and household welfare. This study quantifies the economy-wide and distributional impacts of these migration dynami...
| Autores principales: | , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2025
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179008 |
| _version_ | 1855515737810010112 |
|---|---|
| author | Escalante, Luis Enrique Aragie, Emerta A. Hernandez, Manuel A. |
| author_browse | Aragie, Emerta A. Escalante, Luis Enrique Hernandez, Manuel A. |
| author_facet | Escalante, Luis Enrique Aragie, Emerta A. Hernandez, Manuel A. |
| author_sort | Escalante, Luis Enrique |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | International migration has become a defining force shaping Guatemala’s economy, with both outflows and return inflows generating diverse impacts across economic sectors, labor markets, and household welfare. This study quantifies the economy-wide and distributional impacts of these migration dynamics using a modeling framework that integrates detailed microdata on migration profiles. Three scenarios are considered: a reference case reflecting recent-historical migration patterns (MIG-0), moderately restricted migration (MIG-1), and net return migration (MIG-2), capturing newly emerging shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level within the country. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2%) and by an additional 0.3-0.5 percentage points under the more restrictive cases, driven by higher labor availability from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8%), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, however, is highly sensitive to remittance flows, with income and consumption declining under the restrictive scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace179008 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1790082025-12-19T02:01:38Z The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala Escalante, Luis Enrique Aragie, Emerta A. Hernandez, Manuel A. migration models econometric models macroeconomic analysis labour market welfare International migration has become a defining force shaping Guatemala’s economy, with both outflows and return inflows generating diverse impacts across economic sectors, labor markets, and household welfare. This study quantifies the economy-wide and distributional impacts of these migration dynamics using a modeling framework that integrates detailed microdata on migration profiles. Three scenarios are considered: a reference case reflecting recent-historical migration patterns (MIG-0), moderately restricted migration (MIG-1), and net return migration (MIG-2), capturing newly emerging shifts in emigration and return flows by skill level within the country. Results reveal trade-offs between aggregate economic performance and distributional impacts across households. Compared to a baseline economy with no mobility, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rises modestly under the reference scenario (+0.2%) and by an additional 0.3-0.5 percentage points under the more restrictive cases, driven by higher labor availability from returnees and currency depreciation. Non-agro-processing manufacturing shows the largest expansion (up to 1.8%), reflecting its strong labor-absorption potential. Household welfare, however, is highly sensitive to remittance flows, with income and consumption declining under the restrictive scenarios. These findings underscore the need for policies that facilitate returnee reintegration and strengthen social protection for remittance-dependent households, ensuring that the macroeconomic gains from migration adjustments translate into equitable welfare improvements. 2025-12-17 2025-12-18T17:34:19Z 2025-12-18T17:34:19Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179008 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Escalante, Luis Enrique; Aragie, Emerta A.; and Hernandez, Manuel A. 2025. The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2387. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179008 |
| spellingShingle | migration models econometric models macroeconomic analysis labour market welfare Escalante, Luis Enrique Aragie, Emerta A. Hernandez, Manuel A. The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala |
| title | The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala |
| title_full | The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala |
| title_fullStr | The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala |
| title_full_unstemmed | The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala |
| title_short | The two sides of migration in Central America: Distributional impacts in Guatemala |
| title_sort | two sides of migration in central america distributional impacts in guatemala |
| topic | migration models econometric models macroeconomic analysis labour market welfare |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/179008 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT escalanteluisenrique thetwosidesofmigrationincentralamericadistributionalimpactsinguatemala AT aragieemertaa thetwosidesofmigrationincentralamericadistributionalimpactsinguatemala AT hernandezmanuela thetwosidesofmigrationincentralamericadistributionalimpactsinguatemala AT escalanteluisenrique twosidesofmigrationincentralamericadistributionalimpactsinguatemala AT aragieemertaa twosidesofmigrationincentralamericadistributionalimpactsinguatemala AT hernandezmanuela twosidesofmigrationincentralamericadistributionalimpactsinguatemala |