Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras
The external and internal Migration Propensity Indices (e-MPI and i-MPI) are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their predictive perf...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178954 |
| _version_ | 1855538229627846656 |
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| author | Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Manuel A. |
| author_browse | Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Manuel A. |
| author_facet | Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Manuel A. |
| author_sort | Ceballos, Francisco |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The external and internal Migration Propensity Indices (e-MPI and i-MPI) are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their predictive performance fully out of sample. We find that households classified as being of high-propensity to migrate by the e-MPI were significantly more likely to migrate abroad within 24 months (10.7%) than medium- and low-propensity groups (8.8% and 5.3%). For domestic migration, the i-MPI shows an even stronger gradient (19.6% versus 8.5% and 3.5%, respectively). Regression models confirm that both indices outperform alternative predictors—including income, climate shocks, crime, and migration intent—and maintain predictive power across rural and urban areas. Placebo tests indicate that the e-MPI and i-MPI capture distinct dimensions of migration behavior, validating their use for targeting and monitoring migration-related interventions. Overall, the MPIs emerge as simple yet statistically robust tools that reliably predict both international and domestic migration, offering a practical and scalable solution to help governments and development agencies anticipate migration trends and allocate resources strategically. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace178954 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1789542025-12-18T02:15:48Z Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Manuel A. migration indicators forecasting population dynamics The external and internal Migration Propensity Indices (e-MPI and i-MPI) are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their predictive performance fully out of sample. We find that households classified as being of high-propensity to migrate by the e-MPI were significantly more likely to migrate abroad within 24 months (10.7%) than medium- and low-propensity groups (8.8% and 5.3%). For domestic migration, the i-MPI shows an even stronger gradient (19.6% versus 8.5% and 3.5%, respectively). Regression models confirm that both indices outperform alternative predictors—including income, climate shocks, crime, and migration intent—and maintain predictive power across rural and urban areas. Placebo tests indicate that the e-MPI and i-MPI capture distinct dimensions of migration behavior, validating their use for targeting and monitoring migration-related interventions. Overall, the MPIs emerge as simple yet statistically robust tools that reliably predict both international and domestic migration, offering a practical and scalable solution to help governments and development agencies anticipate migration trends and allocate resources strategically. 2025-12-17 2025-12-17T20:22:20Z 2025-12-17T20:22:20Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178954 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168708 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A. 2025. Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras. IFPRI Working Paper. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178954 |
| spellingShingle | migration indicators forecasting population dynamics Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Manuel A. Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras |
| title | Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras |
| title_full | Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras |
| title_fullStr | Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras |
| title_full_unstemmed | Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras |
| title_short | Out-of-sample validation of the external and internal Migration Propensity Index (MPI) in Honduras |
| title_sort | out of sample validation of the external and internal migration propensity index mpi in honduras |
| topic | migration indicators forecasting population dynamics |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178954 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ceballosfrancisco outofsamplevalidationoftheexternalandinternalmigrationpropensityindexmpiinhonduras AT hernandezmanuela outofsamplevalidationoftheexternalandinternalmigrationpropensityindexmpiinhonduras |