Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique
Sub-Saharan Africa bears a disproportionate share of global poverty and is also among the regions most vulnerable to natural disasters that pose persistent threats to livelihoods, food security, and long-run development. This study examines how exposure to a major natural disaster—Cyclone Idai, one...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Brief |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2025
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178950 |
| _version_ | 1855532263328972800 |
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| author | Allen IV, James Yu, Hang |
| author_browse | Allen IV, James Yu, Hang |
| author_facet | Allen IV, James Yu, Hang |
| author_sort | Allen IV, James |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Sub-Saharan Africa bears a disproportionate share of global poverty and is also among the regions most vulnerable to natural disasters that pose persistent threats to livelihoods, food security, and long-run development. This study examines how exposure to a major natural disaster—Cyclone Idai, one of the deadliest and costliest disasters in Mozambique’s history—affected household well-being and economic behavior in central Mozambique following its landfall in March 2019. We combine satellite-based best-track data on Cyclone Idai’s trajectory with longitudinal household survey data collected both shortly after the disaster and five to six years later. Specifically, we link predicted maximum wind speed at the community level to a pre-defined sample of households surveyed before the cyclone, allowing us to estimate impacts in the short run (within the same year) and the longer run. This design leverages rich pre-baseline data and province fixed effects to mitigate concerns about selection bias, displacement, and omitted variables that commonly complicate causal inference in disaster impact studies.
We find that greater cyclone exposure is strongly associated with short-run reports of shock experience and asset loss, validating predicted wind speed as a measure of disaster intensity. In the long run, however, households appear to recover from the immediate shock. Cyclone exposure is associated with persistent declines in reliance on agriculture as a primary livelihood and increases in small business activity and formal wage employment. At the same time, we observe mixed effects on asset ownership, with sustained declines in housing ownership alongside increases in durable asset holdings. Future work will continue to highlight how complex and heterogeneous pathways through which large-scale disasters reshape household livelihoods and economic behavior over time. |
| format | Brief |
| id | CGSpace178950 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1789502025-12-18T02:11:35Z Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique Allen IV, James Yu, Hang livelihoods cyclones extreme weather events households Sub-Saharan Africa bears a disproportionate share of global poverty and is also among the regions most vulnerable to natural disasters that pose persistent threats to livelihoods, food security, and long-run development. This study examines how exposure to a major natural disaster—Cyclone Idai, one of the deadliest and costliest disasters in Mozambique’s history—affected household well-being and economic behavior in central Mozambique following its landfall in March 2019. We combine satellite-based best-track data on Cyclone Idai’s trajectory with longitudinal household survey data collected both shortly after the disaster and five to six years later. Specifically, we link predicted maximum wind speed at the community level to a pre-defined sample of households surveyed before the cyclone, allowing us to estimate impacts in the short run (within the same year) and the longer run. This design leverages rich pre-baseline data and province fixed effects to mitigate concerns about selection bias, displacement, and omitted variables that commonly complicate causal inference in disaster impact studies. We find that greater cyclone exposure is strongly associated with short-run reports of shock experience and asset loss, validating predicted wind speed as a measure of disaster intensity. In the long run, however, households appear to recover from the immediate shock. Cyclone exposure is associated with persistent declines in reliance on agriculture as a primary livelihood and increases in small business activity and formal wage employment. At the same time, we observe mixed effects on asset ownership, with sustained declines in housing ownership alongside increases in durable asset holdings. Future work will continue to highlight how complex and heterogeneous pathways through which large-scale disasters reshape household livelihoods and economic behavior over time. 2025-12-17 2025-12-17T19:51:46Z 2025-12-17T19:51:46Z Brief https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178950 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Allen IV, James; and Yu, Hang. 2025. Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique. FCA Brief. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178950 |
| spellingShingle | livelihoods cyclones extreme weather events households Allen IV, James Yu, Hang Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique |
| title | Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique |
| title_full | Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique |
| title_fullStr | Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique |
| title_full_unstemmed | Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique |
| title_short | Livelihoods and recovery after Cyclone Idai: Short- and long-run household evidence from Mozambique |
| title_sort | livelihoods and recovery after cyclone idai short and long run household evidence from mozambique |
| topic | livelihoods cyclones extreme weather events households |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178950 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT allenivjames livelihoodsandrecoveryaftercycloneidaishortandlongrunhouseholdevidencefrommozambique AT yuhang livelihoodsandrecoveryaftercycloneidaishortandlongrunhouseholdevidencefrommozambique |