Impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia
Understanding how climate change will reshape drought dynamics is essential for planning sustainable water and agricultural systems in tropical regions. However, large uncertainties in existing projections limit effective adaptation. To address this, we applied machine learning-enhanced climate proj...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
2025
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178922 |
| _version_ | 1855526495704842240 |
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| author | Abdulahi, Mohammed Mussa Egli, Pascal E. Belayneh, Anteneh Bamutaze, Yazidhi Dejene, Sintayehu Workeneh |
| author_browse | Abdulahi, Mohammed Mussa Bamutaze, Yazidhi Belayneh, Anteneh Dejene, Sintayehu Workeneh Egli, Pascal E. |
| author_facet | Abdulahi, Mohammed Mussa Egli, Pascal E. Belayneh, Anteneh Bamutaze, Yazidhi Dejene, Sintayehu Workeneh |
| author_sort | Abdulahi, Mohammed Mussa |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Understanding how climate change will reshape drought dynamics is essential for planning sustainable water and agricultural systems in tropical regions. However, large uncertainties in existing projections limit effective adaptation. To address this, we applied machine learning-enhanced climate projections and satellite-based drought indices to assess drought dynamics in Ethiopia’s Ganale Dawa Basin as a case study. Agricultural and hydrological droughts were analyzed for a historical baseline (1982–2014) and three future periods (2015–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) under SSP2-4.5 (a moderate-emission pathway) and SSP5-8.5 (a high-emission pathway) scenarios. Results show that agricultural droughts occurred 34 times during the historical baseline. Under SSP2-4.5, their frequency declined to 10 in the mid-future, before rising to 16 events in the far future. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 projected increased variability with 33 events in the near future, dropping to 2 in the mid-future, and increasing again to 19 in the far future. Hydrological droughts were more persistent, with a baseline frequency of 31 events, and 26–36 events over future periods under both scenarios. These findings reveal increasing variability in agricultural drought and continued recurrence of hydrological drought. The findings emphasize a dual adaptation approach combining immediate agricultural responses with sustained water management and climate mitigation. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace178922 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
| publisherStr | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1789222025-12-18T02:08:33Z Impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia Abdulahi, Mohammed Mussa Egli, Pascal E. Belayneh, Anteneh Bamutaze, Yazidhi Dejene, Sintayehu Workeneh climate change climate change adaptation drought models research Understanding how climate change will reshape drought dynamics is essential for planning sustainable water and agricultural systems in tropical regions. However, large uncertainties in existing projections limit effective adaptation. To address this, we applied machine learning-enhanced climate projections and satellite-based drought indices to assess drought dynamics in Ethiopia’s Ganale Dawa Basin as a case study. Agricultural and hydrological droughts were analyzed for a historical baseline (1982–2014) and three future periods (2015–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) under SSP2-4.5 (a moderate-emission pathway) and SSP5-8.5 (a high-emission pathway) scenarios. Results show that agricultural droughts occurred 34 times during the historical baseline. Under SSP2-4.5, their frequency declined to 10 in the mid-future, before rising to 16 events in the far future. In contrast, SSP5-8.5 projected increased variability with 33 events in the near future, dropping to 2 in the mid-future, and increasing again to 19 in the far future. Hydrological droughts were more persistent, with a baseline frequency of 31 events, and 26–36 events over future periods under both scenarios. These findings reveal increasing variability in agricultural drought and continued recurrence of hydrological drought. The findings emphasize a dual adaptation approach combining immediate agricultural responses with sustained water management and climate mitigation. 2025-11-11 2025-12-17T13:05:12Z 2025-12-17T13:05:12Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178922 en Open Access application/pdf Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Abdulahi, M.M.; Egli, P.E.; Belayneh, A.; Bamutaze, Y.; Dejene, S.W. (2025) Impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia. Climate 13(11): 231. ISSN: 2225-1154 |
| spellingShingle | climate change climate change adaptation drought models research Abdulahi, Mohammed Mussa Egli, Pascal E. Belayneh, Anteneh Bamutaze, Yazidhi Dejene, Sintayehu Workeneh Impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title | Impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full | Impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_short | Impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on drought dynamics in the ganale dawa river basin ethiopia |
| topic | climate change climate change adaptation drought models research |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178922 |
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