Agricultural distortions and international migration

International migration is a recurrent phenomenon that has grown rapidly over the past two decades. This paper examines the role of agricultural distortions in shaping emigration patterns and influencing productivity and welfare in developing countries, using Guatemala as a case study. We develop a...

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Autores principales: Britos, Braulio, Hernandez, Manuel A., Trupkin, Danilo
Formato: Artículo preliminar
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: International Monetary Fund 2025
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177827
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author Britos, Braulio
Hernandez, Manuel A.
Trupkin, Danilo
author_browse Britos, Braulio
Hernandez, Manuel A.
Trupkin, Danilo
author_facet Britos, Braulio
Hernandez, Manuel A.
Trupkin, Danilo
author_sort Britos, Braulio
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description International migration is a recurrent phenomenon that has grown rapidly over the past two decades. This paper examines the role of agricultural distortions in shaping emigration patterns and influencing productivity and welfare in developing countries, using Guatemala as a case study. We develop a theoretical framework where household members can work in agriculture, non-agriculture, or emigrate, and calibrate the model combining detailed micro and aggregate data. Our model identifies two key channels through which agricultural distortions affect migration and productivity: a first channel where distortions increase emigration among more productive agents, reducing aggregate productivity, and a second channel where distortions drive factor misallocation, lowering incomes and increasing overall emigration. Simulations suggest that, reducing distortions in the agricultural sector to the most efficient department in each region would lower the emigrant share by 2.3 percentage points, primarily among more productive workers. Lower distortions would similarly boost aggregate agricultural productivity by 30.1% and raise welfare by 3.4%. An analysis at the sub-national level reveals that high-distortion areas are more isolated and exhibit less financial penetration and government presence.
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spelling CGSpace1778272026-01-09T16:01:35Z Agricultural distortions and international migration Britos, Braulio Hernandez, Manuel A. Trupkin, Danilo migration labour social welfare market disruptions International migration is a recurrent phenomenon that has grown rapidly over the past two decades. This paper examines the role of agricultural distortions in shaping emigration patterns and influencing productivity and welfare in developing countries, using Guatemala as a case study. We develop a theoretical framework where household members can work in agriculture, non-agriculture, or emigrate, and calibrate the model combining detailed micro and aggregate data. Our model identifies two key channels through which agricultural distortions affect migration and productivity: a first channel where distortions increase emigration among more productive agents, reducing aggregate productivity, and a second channel where distortions drive factor misallocation, lowering incomes and increasing overall emigration. Simulations suggest that, reducing distortions in the agricultural sector to the most efficient department in each region would lower the emigrant share by 2.3 percentage points, primarily among more productive workers. Lower distortions would similarly boost aggregate agricultural productivity by 30.1% and raise welfare by 3.4%. An analysis at the sub-national level reveals that high-distortion areas are more isolated and exhibit less financial penetration and government presence. 2025-11 2025-11-11T20:44:32Z 2025-11-11T20:44:32Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177827 en Open Access International Monetary Fund Britos, Braulio; Hernandez, Manuel A. and Trupkin, Danilo. 2025. Agricultural Distortions and International Migration. IMF Working Paper No. 25/233. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229026314.001
spellingShingle migration
labour
social welfare
market disruptions
Britos, Braulio
Hernandez, Manuel A.
Trupkin, Danilo
Agricultural distortions and international migration
title Agricultural distortions and international migration
title_full Agricultural distortions and international migration
title_fullStr Agricultural distortions and international migration
title_full_unstemmed Agricultural distortions and international migration
title_short Agricultural distortions and international migration
title_sort agricultural distortions and international migration
topic migration
labour
social welfare
market disruptions
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177827
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