Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment
Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches th...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier
2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177610 |
| _version_ | 1855515279227879424 |
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| author | Sundiang, Marina Oliveira, Thais Diniz Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Gibson, Matthew Beier, Felicitas Benavidez, Lauren Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Bos, Astrid Chepeliev, Maksym Chen, David Meng-Chuen de Lange, Thijs Doelman, Jonathan Dunston, Shahnila Frank, Stefan Fujimori, Shinichiro Hasegawa, Tomoko Havlik, Petr Hristov, Jordan Jägermeyr, Jonas Kozicka, Marta Kuiper, Marijke Kyle, Page Lotze-Campen, Hermann Luchtenbelt, Hermen Mishra, Abhijeet Müller, Christoph Nelson, Gerald C. Palazzo, Amanda Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio Popp, Alexander Sands, Ronald Springmann, Marco Stehfest, Elke Sulser, Timothy B. Takahashi, Kiyoshi Tassinari, Gianmaria Thom, Ferike Thornton, Philip K. Tsuchiya, Kazuaki van Zeist, Willem-Jan van Meijl, Hans van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Van Vuuren, Detlef van Zanten, Hannah H. E. Weindl, Isabelle Wiebe, Keith D. Zhao, Xin Herrero, Mario |
| author_browse | Beier, Felicitas Benavidez, Lauren Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Bos, Astrid Chen, David Meng-Chuen Chepeliev, Maksym Doelman, Jonathan Dunston, Shahnila Frank, Stefan Fujimori, Shinichiro Gibson, Matthew Hasegawa, Tomoko Havlik, Petr Herrero, Mario Hristov, Jordan Jägermeyr, Jonas Kozicka, Marta Kuiper, Marijke Kyle, Page Lotze-Campen, Hermann Luchtenbelt, Hermen Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Mishra, Abhijeet Müller, Christoph Nelson, Gerald C. Oliveira, Thais Diniz Palazzo, Amanda Popp, Alexander Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio Sands, Ronald Springmann, Marco Stehfest, Elke Sulser, Timothy B. Sundiang, Marina Takahashi, Kiyoshi Tassinari, Gianmaria Thom, Ferike Thornton, Philip K. Tsuchiya, Kazuaki Van Vuuren, Detlef Weindl, Isabelle Wiebe, Keith D. Zhao, Xin de Lange, Thijs van Meijl, Hans van Zanten, Hannah H. E. van Zeist, Willem-Jan van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique |
| author_facet | Sundiang, Marina Oliveira, Thais Diniz Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Gibson, Matthew Beier, Felicitas Benavidez, Lauren Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Bos, Astrid Chepeliev, Maksym Chen, David Meng-Chuen de Lange, Thijs Doelman, Jonathan Dunston, Shahnila Frank, Stefan Fujimori, Shinichiro Hasegawa, Tomoko Havlik, Petr Hristov, Jordan Jägermeyr, Jonas Kozicka, Marta Kuiper, Marijke Kyle, Page Lotze-Campen, Hermann Luchtenbelt, Hermen Mishra, Abhijeet Müller, Christoph Nelson, Gerald C. Palazzo, Amanda Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio Popp, Alexander Sands, Ronald Springmann, Marco Stehfest, Elke Sulser, Timothy B. Takahashi, Kiyoshi Tassinari, Gianmaria Thom, Ferike Thornton, Philip K. Tsuchiya, Kazuaki van Zeist, Willem-Jan van Meijl, Hans van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Van Vuuren, Detlef van Zanten, Hannah H. E. Weindl, Isabelle Wiebe, Keith D. Zhao, Xin Herrero, Mario |
| author_sort | Sundiang, Marina |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Background
Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models.
Methods
In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously.
Findings
Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices).
Interpretation
This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace177610 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1776102025-12-08T09:54:28Z Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment Sundiang, Marina Oliveira, Thais Diniz Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Gibson, Matthew Beier, Felicitas Benavidez, Lauren Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Bos, Astrid Chepeliev, Maksym Chen, David Meng-Chuen de Lange, Thijs Doelman, Jonathan Dunston, Shahnila Frank, Stefan Fujimori, Shinichiro Hasegawa, Tomoko Havlik, Petr Hristov, Jordan Jägermeyr, Jonas Kozicka, Marta Kuiper, Marijke Kyle, Page Lotze-Campen, Hermann Luchtenbelt, Hermen Mishra, Abhijeet Müller, Christoph Nelson, Gerald C. Palazzo, Amanda Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio Popp, Alexander Sands, Ronald Springmann, Marco Stehfest, Elke Sulser, Timothy B. Takahashi, Kiyoshi Tassinari, Gianmaria Thom, Ferike Thornton, Philip K. Tsuchiya, Kazuaki van Zeist, Willem-Jan van Meijl, Hans van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Van Vuuren, Detlef van Zanten, Hannah H. E. Weindl, Isabelle Wiebe, Keith D. Zhao, Xin Herrero, Mario food systems bundling greenhouse gas emissions food prices climate change mitigation Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions. 2025-10 2025-11-05T19:31:24Z 2025-11-05T19:31:24Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177610 en Open Access Elsevier Sundiang, Marina; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Gibson, Matthew; Beier, Felicitas; et al. 2025. Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment. Lancet Planetary Health 9(10): 101339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101339 |
| spellingShingle | food systems bundling greenhouse gas emissions food prices climate change mitigation Sundiang, Marina Oliveira, Thais Diniz Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Gibson, Matthew Beier, Felicitas Benavidez, Lauren Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon Bos, Astrid Chepeliev, Maksym Chen, David Meng-Chuen de Lange, Thijs Doelman, Jonathan Dunston, Shahnila Frank, Stefan Fujimori, Shinichiro Hasegawa, Tomoko Havlik, Petr Hristov, Jordan Jägermeyr, Jonas Kozicka, Marta Kuiper, Marijke Kyle, Page Lotze-Campen, Hermann Luchtenbelt, Hermen Mishra, Abhijeet Müller, Christoph Nelson, Gerald C. Palazzo, Amanda Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio Popp, Alexander Sands, Ronald Springmann, Marco Stehfest, Elke Sulser, Timothy B. Takahashi, Kiyoshi Tassinari, Gianmaria Thom, Ferike Thornton, Philip K. Tsuchiya, Kazuaki van Zeist, Willem-Jan van Meijl, Hans van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Van Vuuren, Detlef van Zanten, Hannah H. E. Weindl, Isabelle Wiebe, Keith D. Zhao, Xin Herrero, Mario Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment |
| title | Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment |
| title_full | Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment |
| title_fullStr | Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment |
| title_short | Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment |
| title_sort | bundling measures for food systems transformation a global multimodel assessment |
| topic | food systems bundling greenhouse gas emissions food prices climate change mitigation |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177610 |
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