Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis
Background Affordability limits healthy diet adoption, especially in low-income settings, yet dietary shifts are key for transition to sustainable food systems. This study models how a diet in line with the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission dietary transition might impact calorie availability, share of inc...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177558 |
| _version_ | 1855519346131992576 |
|---|---|
| author | Mishra, Abhijeet Sulser, Timothy B. Gabriel, Sherwin Cenacchi, Nicola Dunston, Shahnila Headey, Derek D. Herrero, Mario Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Wiebe, Keith D. |
| author_browse | Cenacchi, Nicola Dunston, Shahnila Gabriel, Sherwin Headey, Derek D. Herrero, Mario Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Mishra, Abhijeet Sulser, Timothy B. Wiebe, Keith D. |
| author_facet | Mishra, Abhijeet Sulser, Timothy B. Gabriel, Sherwin Cenacchi, Nicola Dunston, Shahnila Headey, Derek D. Herrero, Mario Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Wiebe, Keith D. |
| author_sort | Mishra, Abhijeet |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Background
Affordability limits healthy diet adoption, especially in low-income settings, yet dietary shifts are key for transition to sustainable food systems. This study models how a diet in line with the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission dietary transition might impact calorie availability, share of income spent on food, nutrition availability, and food prices.
Methods
We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to estimate food price changes under three alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and global adoption of a 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet by 2050. We analyse price shifts for the two cheapest commodities per food group, in each region, weighted on calorie availability per dollar. Additionally, we assess gaps between nutrient availability and reference nutrient intake and changes in the share of income spent on food for the whole diet.
Findings
Adoption of the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet leads to heterogeneous impacts on the share of income spent on food and nutrient availability, with gains in folate, iron, and zinc, but declines in vitamin A by 2050. The combined price index for the cheapest two commodities declines by 2050 compared with 2020 in both higher-income and lower-income countries.
Interpretation
Although dietary shifts towards the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet could offset some of the increases in prices seen in a business-as-usual world, we observed unintended effects on nutrient availability ratios, especially in lower-income countries. The decreasing price index for the cheapest two commodities reflects market adjustments to changes in demand and supply under scenario assumptions aligned with 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission goals for jointly improved human and environmental health. The observed nutrient deficiencies suggest the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet limits on animal-sourced foods might be too strict for lower-income countries, which could exacerbate nutrient deficiencies in contexts where access to animal sourced foods is already low (eg, vitamin A), especially if there is no access to supplementation for meeting these nutritional requirements or other sources of dietary nutrients. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace177558 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1775582025-11-13T15:29:33Z Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis Mishra, Abhijeet Sulser, Timothy B. Gabriel, Sherwin Cenacchi, Nicola Dunston, Shahnila Headey, Derek D. Herrero, Mario Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Wiebe, Keith D. food affordability nutrition modelling trace elements Background Affordability limits healthy diet adoption, especially in low-income settings, yet dietary shifts are key for transition to sustainable food systems. This study models how a diet in line with the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission dietary transition might impact calorie availability, share of income spent on food, nutrition availability, and food prices. Methods We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to estimate food price changes under three alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and global adoption of a 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet by 2050. We analyse price shifts for the two cheapest commodities per food group, in each region, weighted on calorie availability per dollar. Additionally, we assess gaps between nutrient availability and reference nutrient intake and changes in the share of income spent on food for the whole diet. Findings Adoption of the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet leads to heterogeneous impacts on the share of income spent on food and nutrient availability, with gains in folate, iron, and zinc, but declines in vitamin A by 2050. The combined price index for the cheapest two commodities declines by 2050 compared with 2020 in both higher-income and lower-income countries. Interpretation Although dietary shifts towards the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet could offset some of the increases in prices seen in a business-as-usual world, we observed unintended effects on nutrient availability ratios, especially in lower-income countries. The decreasing price index for the cheapest two commodities reflects market adjustments to changes in demand and supply under scenario assumptions aligned with 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission goals for jointly improved human and environmental health. The observed nutrient deficiencies suggest the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet limits on animal-sourced foods might be too strict for lower-income countries, which could exacerbate nutrient deficiencies in contexts where access to animal sourced foods is already low (eg, vitamin A), especially if there is no access to supplementation for meeting these nutritional requirements or other sources of dietary nutrients. 2025-10 2025-11-04T20:55:16Z 2025-11-04T20:55:16Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177558 en https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01201-2 Open Access Elsevier Mishra, Abhijeet; Sulser, Timothy B.; Gabriel, Sherwin; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; et al. 2025. Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis. Lancet Planetary Health 9(10): 101325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101325 |
| spellingShingle | food affordability nutrition modelling trace elements Mishra, Abhijeet Sulser, Timothy B. Gabriel, Sherwin Cenacchi, Nicola Dunston, Shahnila Headey, Derek D. Herrero, Mario Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Wiebe, Keith D. Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis |
| title | Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis |
| title_full | Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis |
| title_fullStr | Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis |
| title_short | Affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of EAT diets: An economic modelling analysis |
| title_sort | affordability and nutritional challenges for the future of eat diets an economic modelling analysis |
| topic | food affordability nutrition modelling trace elements |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177558 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mishraabhijeet affordabilityandnutritionalchallengesforthefutureofeatdietsaneconomicmodellinganalysis AT sulsertimothyb affordabilityandnutritionalchallengesforthefutureofeatdietsaneconomicmodellinganalysis AT gabrielsherwin affordabilityandnutritionalchallengesforthefutureofeatdietsaneconomicmodellinganalysis AT cenacchinicola affordabilityandnutritionalchallengesforthefutureofeatdietsaneconomicmodellinganalysis AT dunstonshahnila affordabilityandnutritionalchallengesforthefutureofeatdietsaneconomicmodellinganalysis AT headeyderekd affordabilityandnutritionalchallengesforthefutureofeatdietsaneconomicmodellinganalysis AT herreromario affordabilityandnutritionalchallengesforthefutureofeatdietsaneconomicmodellinganalysis AT masondcrozdaniel affordabilityandnutritionalchallengesforthefutureofeatdietsaneconomicmodellinganalysis AT wiebekeithd affordabilityandnutritionalchallengesforthefutureofeatdietsaneconomicmodellinganalysis |