The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria
Over the past decade Nigeria has experienced persistent food price inflation and substantial volatility, driven by domestic fragilities and global shocks. Three major shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the Ukraine-Russia war (2022), and fuel subsidy reform (2023) – drove large and uneven price i...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2025
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177382 |
| _version_ | 1855541008628973568 |
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| author | Amare, Mulubrhan Omamo, Steven Were Balana, Bedru Andam, Kwaw S. Nwagboso, Chibuzo Iraoya, Augustine Popoola, Olufemi Loum, Serigne Jawed, Khusro |
| author_browse | Amare, Mulubrhan Andam, Kwaw S. Balana, Bedru Iraoya, Augustine Jawed, Khusro Loum, Serigne Nwagboso, Chibuzo Omamo, Steven Were Popoola, Olufemi |
| author_facet | Amare, Mulubrhan Omamo, Steven Were Balana, Bedru Andam, Kwaw S. Nwagboso, Chibuzo Iraoya, Augustine Popoola, Olufemi Loum, Serigne Jawed, Khusro |
| author_sort | Amare, Mulubrhan |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Over the past decade Nigeria has experienced persistent food price inflation and substantial volatility, driven by domestic fragilities and global shocks. Three major shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the Ukraine-Russia war (2022), and fuel subsidy reform (2023) – drove large and uneven price increases, with wheat prices rising by 63.3% and brown sorghum by 83.9%. Volatility was highest for wheat flour and groundnuts, with coefficients of variation of 0.53 and 0.51, reflecting Nigeria’s dependence on imports and sensitivity to external price shocks. This study utilizes high-frequency retail price data for eight staple food commodities across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to analyze spatial and temporal food price dynamics, volatility patterns, and their welfare implications. To quantify welfare impacts, we use the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Food Price Simulator. Results show a 9.1 percentage point increase in food poverty (from 42.9% to 52.0%) and an 11.6-point rise in undernourishment (from 40.0% to 51.6%). Lower-income households reduced food expenditures by 12.7%, compared to 9.5% for higher-income groups, reflecting disproportionate exposure to food inflation. Northern zones had relatively lower prices for traditional grains due to more favorable agroecological conditions, while southern regions faced higher prices due to higher transport costs and limited local production. Conflict-affected northeastern states exhibited the highest volatility and food insecurity. We propose a three-pronged policy agenda: short-term safety nets and strategic reserves, medium-term reforms to strengthen market connectivity through improved transport and storage infrastructure, and long-term investments in climate-resilient, inclusive food systems. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace177382 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1773822025-12-02T21:03:13Z The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria Amare, Mulubrhan Omamo, Steven Were Balana, Bedru Andam, Kwaw S. Nwagboso, Chibuzo Iraoya, Augustine Popoola, Olufemi Loum, Serigne Jawed, Khusro food prices food security households markets policy innovation price volatility Over the past decade Nigeria has experienced persistent food price inflation and substantial volatility, driven by domestic fragilities and global shocks. Three major shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the Ukraine-Russia war (2022), and fuel subsidy reform (2023) – drove large and uneven price increases, with wheat prices rising by 63.3% and brown sorghum by 83.9%. Volatility was highest for wheat flour and groundnuts, with coefficients of variation of 0.53 and 0.51, reflecting Nigeria’s dependence on imports and sensitivity to external price shocks. This study utilizes high-frequency retail price data for eight staple food commodities across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to analyze spatial and temporal food price dynamics, volatility patterns, and their welfare implications. To quantify welfare impacts, we use the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Food Price Simulator. Results show a 9.1 percentage point increase in food poverty (from 42.9% to 52.0%) and an 11.6-point rise in undernourishment (from 40.0% to 51.6%). Lower-income households reduced food expenditures by 12.7%, compared to 9.5% for higher-income groups, reflecting disproportionate exposure to food inflation. Northern zones had relatively lower prices for traditional grains due to more favorable agroecological conditions, while southern regions faced higher prices due to higher transport costs and limited local production. Conflict-affected northeastern states exhibited the highest volatility and food insecurity. We propose a three-pronged policy agenda: short-term safety nets and strategic reserves, medium-term reforms to strengthen market connectivity through improved transport and storage infrastructure, and long-term investments in climate-resilient, inclusive food systems. 2025-10-28 2025-10-28T16:10:30Z 2025-10-28T16:10:30Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177382 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Amare, Mulubrhan; Omamo, Steven Were; Balana, Bedru; Andam, Kwaw S.; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Iraoya, Augustine; et al. 2025. The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2371. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. |
| spellingShingle | food prices food security households markets policy innovation price volatility Amare, Mulubrhan Omamo, Steven Were Balana, Bedru Andam, Kwaw S. Nwagboso, Chibuzo Iraoya, Augustine Popoola, Olufemi Loum, Serigne Jawed, Khusro The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria |
| title | The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria |
| title_full | The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria |
| title_fullStr | The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria |
| title_full_unstemmed | The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria |
| title_short | The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria |
| title_sort | price of fragility shocks food security and lessons from nigeria |
| topic | food prices food security households markets policy innovation price volatility |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177382 |
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