Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America
Recent global shocks have triggered sharp spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, raising concerns about their domestic impacts. This study examines the extent to which international price levels and volatility are transmitted to domestic food and fertilizer markets in seven Central Amer...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2026
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177271 |
| _version_ | 1855530493687103488 |
|---|---|
| author | Hernandez, Manuel A. Ceballos, Francisco Berrospi, Maria Lucia Perego, Viviana M. E. Brown, Melissa Lopez, Elena Mora |
| author_browse | Berrospi, Maria Lucia Brown, Melissa Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Manuel A. Lopez, Elena Mora Perego, Viviana M. E. |
| author_facet | Hernandez, Manuel A. Ceballos, Francisco Berrospi, Maria Lucia Perego, Viviana M. E. Brown, Melissa Lopez, Elena Mora |
| author_sort | Hernandez, Manuel A. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Recent global shocks have triggered sharp spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, raising concerns about their domestic impacts. This study examines the extent to which international price levels and volatility are transmitted to domestic food and fertilizer markets in seven Central American countries. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2024. While results vary by country and commodity, we find overall low to moderate elasticities of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission in the very short term (1-month). Interestingly, price transmission tends to strengthen after 3 months, whereas volatility transmission is more short-lived and appears to dissipate. The co-movement between international and domestic prices shows no apparent trend over time and lacks consistency across countries and commodities following major global events. Back-of-the-envelope simulations of higher international food and fertilizer prices suggest modest, though non-negligible, impacts on local consumer and producer welfare.
JEL Classification: Q02, Q11, C32 |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace177271 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publishDateRange | 2026 |
| publishDateSort | 2026 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1772712026-01-02T15:32:42Z Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America Hernandez, Manuel A. Ceballos, Francisco Berrospi, Maria Lucia Perego, Viviana M. E. Brown, Melissa Lopez, Elena Mora fertilizers food prices shock volatility prices econometrics Recent global shocks have triggered sharp spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, raising concerns about their domestic impacts. This study examines the extent to which international price levels and volatility are transmitted to domestic food and fertilizer markets in seven Central American countries. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2024. While results vary by country and commodity, we find overall low to moderate elasticities of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission in the very short term (1-month). Interestingly, price transmission tends to strengthen after 3 months, whereas volatility transmission is more short-lived and appears to dissipate. The co-movement between international and domestic prices shows no apparent trend over time and lacks consistency across countries and commodities following major global events. Back-of-the-envelope simulations of higher international food and fertilizer prices suggest modest, though non-negligible, impacts on local consumer and producer welfare. JEL Classification: Q02, Q11, C32 2026 2025-10-22T19:04:49Z 2025-10-22T19:04:49Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177271 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162957 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/41665 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.01.015 https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12184 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.04.012 https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbt020 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.06.013 Open Access Wiley Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana M. E.; Brown, Melissa; and Lopez, Elena Mora. Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America. Agricultural Economics. Article in press. First published online October 21, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70071 |
| spellingShingle | fertilizers food prices shock volatility prices econometrics Hernandez, Manuel A. Ceballos, Francisco Berrospi, Maria Lucia Perego, Viviana M. E. Brown, Melissa Lopez, Elena Mora Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title | Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title_full | Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title_fullStr | Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title_full_unstemmed | Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title_short | Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title_sort | price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in central america |
| topic | fertilizers food prices shock volatility prices econometrics |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177271 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hernandezmanuela priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica AT ceballosfrancisco priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica AT berrospimarialucia priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica AT peregovivianame priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica AT brownmelissa priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica AT lopezelenamora priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica |