When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture
Increasing water scarcity will affect hundreds of millions of smallholder farmers in coming decades, but little is known about the likely forms of adaptation. This study exploits a natural experiment in which heterogeneous geological formations affect the rate of groundwater depletion across 40 vill...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Oxford University Press
2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177088 |
| _version_ | 1855518461281697792 |
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| author | Fishman, Ram Jain, Meha Kishore, Avinash |
| author_browse | Fishman, Ram Jain, Meha Kishore, Avinash |
| author_facet | Fishman, Ram Jain, Meha Kishore, Avinash |
| author_sort | Fishman, Ram |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Increasing water scarcity will affect hundreds of millions of smallholder farmers in coming decades, but little is known about the likely forms of adaptation. This study exploits a natural experiment in which heterogeneous geological formations affect the rate of groundwater depletion across 40 villages in Gujarat, India, to provide novel evidence on this question. The analysis reveals that greater water scarcity leads to widespread declines in irrigated agriculture and enhanced migration to cities, but only among dominant socio-economic groups. No evidence is found of substantial compensating investments in water-efficient technologies or in human capital, despite farmers having long been aware of the decline in water levels. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace177088 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publishDateRange | 2026 |
| publishDateSort | 2026 |
| publisher | Oxford University Press |
| publisherStr | Oxford University Press |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1770882026-01-02T15:32:42Z When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture Fishman, Ram Jain, Meha Kishore, Avinash adaptation agriculture groundwater depletion irrigation migration water scarcity smallholders Increasing water scarcity will affect hundreds of millions of smallholder farmers in coming decades, but little is known about the likely forms of adaptation. This study exploits a natural experiment in which heterogeneous geological formations affect the rate of groundwater depletion across 40 villages in Gujarat, India, to provide novel evidence on this question. The analysis reveals that greater water scarcity leads to widespread declines in irrigated agriculture and enhanced migration to cities, but only among dominant socio-economic groups. No evidence is found of substantial compensating investments in water-efficient technologies or in human capital, despite farmers having long been aware of the decline in water levels. 2026 2025-10-14T18:03:45Z 2025-10-14T18:03:45Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177088 en Open Access Oxford University Press Fishman, Ram; Jain, Meha; and Kishore, Avinash. When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture. World Bank Economic Review. Article in press. First published online June 13, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhaf012 |
| spellingShingle | adaptation agriculture groundwater depletion irrigation migration water scarcity smallholders Fishman, Ram Jain, Meha Kishore, Avinash When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture |
| title | When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture |
| title_full | When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture |
| title_fullStr | When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture |
| title_full_unstemmed | When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture |
| title_short | When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture |
| title_sort | when water runs out adaptation to gradual environmental change in indian agriculture |
| topic | adaptation agriculture groundwater depletion irrigation migration water scarcity smallholders |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/177088 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fishmanram whenwaterrunsoutadaptationtogradualenvironmentalchangeinindianagriculture AT jainmeha whenwaterrunsoutadaptationtogradualenvironmentalchangeinindianagriculture AT kishoreavinash whenwaterrunsoutadaptationtogradualenvironmentalchangeinindianagriculture |