Mitigating climate change impacts on West African rice yields: evaluating APSIM-ORYZA and management practices

Rice (Oryza sativa) demand in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise by 12 million tonnes between 2021 and 2026. However, climate change poses a significant challenge to achieving rice self-sufficiency in the region. This study assessed the impact of climate change on rice yield and evaluated manag...

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Main Authors: Guidigan, M. L. G., Dossou-Yovo, E. R., Ra-danielson, A. M., Akpoti, Komlavi, Tapily, A., Iboko, M. P., Balogun, A. A.
Format: Journal Article
Language:Inglés
Published: Wiley 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176815
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author Guidigan, M. L. G.
Dossou-Yovo, E. R.
Ra-danielson, A. M.
Akpoti, Komlavi
Tapily, A.
Iboko, M. P.
Balogun, A. A.
author_browse Akpoti, Komlavi
Balogun, A. A.
Dossou-Yovo, E. R.
Guidigan, M. L. G.
Iboko, M. P.
Ra-danielson, A. M.
Tapily, A.
author_facet Guidigan, M. L. G.
Dossou-Yovo, E. R.
Ra-danielson, A. M.
Akpoti, Komlavi
Tapily, A.
Iboko, M. P.
Balogun, A. A.
author_sort Guidigan, M. L. G.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Rice (Oryza sativa) demand in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise by 12 million tonnes between 2021 and 2026. However, climate change poses a significant challenge to achieving rice self-sufficiency in the region. This study assessed the impact of climate change on rice yield and evaluated management practices to reduce associated yield losses in the derived savannah agroecological zone of West Africa. Field experiments were conducted on 22 farmers' fields across two irrigated schemes in central Cote d'Ivoire. Data on soil properties, weather, management practices, and rice yield was used to calibrate and validate the integrated model combining APSIM and ORYZA 2000 model. Future climate impacts were evaluated using bias-corrected data from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (where RCP is representation concentration pathway) scenarios. The model performed satisfactorily, with R2 values between 0.8 and 1, RMSE ranging from 0 to 5 t ha−1, and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency from 0.99 to 1. Projections indicated rice yield reduction of 82% and 77% by 2070–2100, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, compared to the 2019 baseline. Alternative management practices, including manure application at 3 Mg ha−1, rice straw mulching at 3 Mg ha−1, and nitrogen fertilizer at 180 kg ha−1, mitigated yield losses and even increased yield under climate change. These findings suggest that while climate change will substantially reduce irrigated rice yield, implementing improved management practices can enhance rice productivity and support food security in West Africa's derived savannah zone.
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spelling CGSpace1768152025-10-26T12:56:54Z Mitigating climate change impacts on West African rice yields: evaluating APSIM-ORYZA and management practices Guidigan, M. L. G. Dossou-Yovo, E. R. Ra-danielson, A. M. Akpoti, Komlavi Tapily, A. Iboko, M. P. Balogun, A. A. climate change impacts climate change mitigation rice crop yield models Rice (Oryza sativa) demand in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise by 12 million tonnes between 2021 and 2026. However, climate change poses a significant challenge to achieving rice self-sufficiency in the region. This study assessed the impact of climate change on rice yield and evaluated management practices to reduce associated yield losses in the derived savannah agroecological zone of West Africa. Field experiments were conducted on 22 farmers' fields across two irrigated schemes in central Cote d'Ivoire. Data on soil properties, weather, management practices, and rice yield was used to calibrate and validate the integrated model combining APSIM and ORYZA 2000 model. Future climate impacts were evaluated using bias-corrected data from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (where RCP is representation concentration pathway) scenarios. The model performed satisfactorily, with R2 values between 0.8 and 1, RMSE ranging from 0 to 5 t ha−1, and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency from 0.99 to 1. Projections indicated rice yield reduction of 82% and 77% by 2070–2100, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, compared to the 2019 baseline. Alternative management practices, including manure application at 3 Mg ha−1, rice straw mulching at 3 Mg ha−1, and nitrogen fertilizer at 180 kg ha−1, mitigated yield losses and even increased yield under climate change. These findings suggest that while climate change will substantially reduce irrigated rice yield, implementing improved management practices can enhance rice productivity and support food security in West Africa's derived savannah zone. 2025-07 2025-10-03T15:51:41Z 2025-10-03T15:51:41Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176815 en Limited Access Wiley Guidigan, M. L. G.; Dossou-Yovo, E. R.; Ra-danielson, A. M.; Akpoti, K.; Tapily, A.; Iboko, M. P.; Balogun, A. A. 2025. Mitigating climate change impacts on West African rice yields: evaluating APSIM-ORYZA and management practices. Agronomy Journal, 117(4):e70113. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.70113
spellingShingle climate change impacts
climate change mitigation
rice
crop yield
models
Guidigan, M. L. G.
Dossou-Yovo, E. R.
Ra-danielson, A. M.
Akpoti, Komlavi
Tapily, A.
Iboko, M. P.
Balogun, A. A.
Mitigating climate change impacts on West African rice yields: evaluating APSIM-ORYZA and management practices
title Mitigating climate change impacts on West African rice yields: evaluating APSIM-ORYZA and management practices
title_full Mitigating climate change impacts on West African rice yields: evaluating APSIM-ORYZA and management practices
title_fullStr Mitigating climate change impacts on West African rice yields: evaluating APSIM-ORYZA and management practices
title_full_unstemmed Mitigating climate change impacts on West African rice yields: evaluating APSIM-ORYZA and management practices
title_short Mitigating climate change impacts on West African rice yields: evaluating APSIM-ORYZA and management practices
title_sort mitigating climate change impacts on west african rice yields evaluating apsim oryza and management practices
topic climate change impacts
climate change mitigation
rice
crop yield
models
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176815
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