Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures
Agricultural yield shocks are frequently correlated across countries and much of the recent literature concludes that both the volatility of shocks and the extent of correlations across countries are likely to increase substantially with climate change. Given this background, it seems important to c...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176642 |
| _version_ | 1855524455584890880 |
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| author | Martin, Will Nia, Reza Vos, Rob |
| author_browse | Martin, Will Nia, Reza Vos, Rob |
| author_facet | Martin, Will Nia, Reza Vos, Rob |
| author_sort | Martin, Will |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Agricultural yield shocks are frequently correlated across countries and much of the recent literature concludes that both the volatility of shocks and the extent of correlations across countries are likely to increase substantially with climate change. Given this background, it seems important to consider the potential impacts of large, synchronized yield shocks in both developing and developed countries. These shocks are examined using IFPRI’s MIRAGRODEP model and the linked POVANA household models to assess the impacts on real incomes, food prices, poverty and food insecurity. The results of a 25% reduction in productivity in South Asia and Eastern and Southern Africa are compared with a similar productivity reduction in Europe and North America. The results make clear that the adverse impacts on global poverty and food security are much more severe when the shock originates in developing countries. The results point to a need for quite different policy responses in the case of a multiple breadbasket failure arising in the global south, rather than—like the three most recent food crises—in the global north. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace176642 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1766422025-12-02T21:02:52Z Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures Martin, Will Nia, Reza Vos, Rob agriculture climate change crop yield developing countries extreme weather events food security poverty shock Agricultural yield shocks are frequently correlated across countries and much of the recent literature concludes that both the volatility of shocks and the extent of correlations across countries are likely to increase substantially with climate change. Given this background, it seems important to consider the potential impacts of large, synchronized yield shocks in both developing and developed countries. These shocks are examined using IFPRI’s MIRAGRODEP model and the linked POVANA household models to assess the impacts on real incomes, food prices, poverty and food insecurity. The results of a 25% reduction in productivity in South Asia and Eastern and Southern Africa are compared with a similar productivity reduction in Europe and North America. The results make clear that the adverse impacts on global poverty and food security are much more severe when the shock originates in developing countries. The results point to a need for quite different policy responses in the case of a multiple breadbasket failure arising in the global south, rather than—like the three most recent food crises—in the global north. 2025-09-22 2025-09-23T18:38:03Z 2025-09-23T18:38:03Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176642 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/128033 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152395 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145819 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142281 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Martin, Will; Nia, Reza; and Vos, Rob. 2025. Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2360. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176642 |
| spellingShingle | agriculture climate change crop yield developing countries extreme weather events food security poverty shock Martin, Will Nia, Reza Vos, Rob Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures |
| title | Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures |
| title_full | Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures |
| title_fullStr | Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures |
| title_short | Global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures |
| title_sort | global food security impacts of extreme weather events and occurrence of breadbasket failures |
| topic | agriculture climate change crop yield developing countries extreme weather events food security poverty shock |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176642 |
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