Thermal bioclimatic transformations in the coastal regions of Ganges delta: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
Thermal Bioclimatic Indicators (TBIs) are essential for understanding climate variability and its impacts on ecosystems and human societies, which are commonly utilized to assess the effects of climate change on biodiversity, pollution, agricultural production, and human thermal comfort. The Ganges...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Springer
2025
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176611 |
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| author | Islam, H. M. Touhidul Mainuddin, Mohammed Affan, Abu Ahmed, Sharif Rahman, Md. Abiar Sadeque, Abdus Almazroui, Mansour Rahman, S. M. Hasibur Kamruzzaman, Mohammad |
| author_browse | Affan, Abu Ahmed, Sharif Almazroui, Mansour Islam, H. M. Touhidul Kamruzzaman, Mohammad Mainuddin, Mohammed Rahman, Md. Abiar Rahman, S. M. Hasibur Sadeque, Abdus |
| author_facet | Islam, H. M. Touhidul Mainuddin, Mohammed Affan, Abu Ahmed, Sharif Rahman, Md. Abiar Sadeque, Abdus Almazroui, Mansour Rahman, S. M. Hasibur Kamruzzaman, Mohammad |
| author_sort | Islam, H. M. Touhidul |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Thermal Bioclimatic Indicators (TBIs) are essential for understanding climate variability and its impacts on ecosystems and human societies, which are commonly utilized to assess the effects of climate change on biodiversity, pollution, agricultural production, and human thermal comfort. The Ganges Delta, one of the world’s most biologically diverse coastal regions, is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study employs a multi-model ensemble of sixteen CMIP6 global climate models to assess future changes in eleven TBIs under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Projections indicate a significant increase in annual temperatures by 0.71–1.91 °C (SSP1-2.6), 0.77–2.80 °C (SSP2-4.5), and 1.03–4.65 °C (SSP5-8.5) by 2100. The diurnal temperature range is projected to decline by up to 0.87 °C, while isothermality may decrease by 3.30–12.09%, indicating shifts in thermal stability. Additionally, the driest months are expected to experience more pronounced warming than the wettest months. These thermal transformations pose significant threats to biodiversity, agriculture, and coastal communities, increasing risks of habitat loss, declining agricultural productivity, and altered hydrological patterns. Adaptive strategies such as tidal river management, mangrove afforestation, and conservation initiatives are essential to enhance resilience. The findings underscore the urgency of climate-responsive policies to mitigate risks and ensure the long-term sustainability of this ecologically and economically vital region. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace176611 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1766112025-12-08T09:54:28Z Thermal bioclimatic transformations in the coastal regions of Ganges delta: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble Islam, H. M. Touhidul Mainuddin, Mohammed Affan, Abu Ahmed, Sharif Rahman, Md. Abiar Sadeque, Abdus Almazroui, Mansour Rahman, S. M. Hasibur Kamruzzaman, Mohammad climate change climate models agricultural production coastal areas productivity biodiversity conservation agriculture resilience sustainability Thermal Bioclimatic Indicators (TBIs) are essential for understanding climate variability and its impacts on ecosystems and human societies, which are commonly utilized to assess the effects of climate change on biodiversity, pollution, agricultural production, and human thermal comfort. The Ganges Delta, one of the world’s most biologically diverse coastal regions, is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study employs a multi-model ensemble of sixteen CMIP6 global climate models to assess future changes in eleven TBIs under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Projections indicate a significant increase in annual temperatures by 0.71–1.91 °C (SSP1-2.6), 0.77–2.80 °C (SSP2-4.5), and 1.03–4.65 °C (SSP5-8.5) by 2100. The diurnal temperature range is projected to decline by up to 0.87 °C, while isothermality may decrease by 3.30–12.09%, indicating shifts in thermal stability. Additionally, the driest months are expected to experience more pronounced warming than the wettest months. These thermal transformations pose significant threats to biodiversity, agriculture, and coastal communities, increasing risks of habitat loss, declining agricultural productivity, and altered hydrological patterns. Adaptive strategies such as tidal river management, mangrove afforestation, and conservation initiatives are essential to enhance resilience. The findings underscore the urgency of climate-responsive policies to mitigate risks and ensure the long-term sustainability of this ecologically and economically vital region. 2025-07-01 2025-09-23T02:54:27Z 2025-09-23T02:54:27Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176611 en Open Access application/pdf Springer Islam, HM Touhidul, Mohammed Mainuddin, Abu Affan, Sharif Ahmed, Md Abiar Rahman, Abdus Sadeque, Mansour Almazroui, SM Hasibur Rahman, and Mohammad Kamruzzaman. "Thermal bioclimatic transformations in the coastal regions of Ganges delta: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble." Scientific Reports 15, no. 1 (2025): 20569. |
| spellingShingle | climate change climate models agricultural production coastal areas productivity biodiversity conservation agriculture resilience sustainability Islam, H. M. Touhidul Mainuddin, Mohammed Affan, Abu Ahmed, Sharif Rahman, Md. Abiar Sadeque, Abdus Almazroui, Mansour Rahman, S. M. Hasibur Kamruzzaman, Mohammad Thermal bioclimatic transformations in the coastal regions of Ganges delta: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
| title | Thermal bioclimatic transformations in the coastal regions of Ganges delta: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
| title_full | Thermal bioclimatic transformations in the coastal regions of Ganges delta: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
| title_fullStr | Thermal bioclimatic transformations in the coastal regions of Ganges delta: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
| title_full_unstemmed | Thermal bioclimatic transformations in the coastal regions of Ganges delta: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
| title_short | Thermal bioclimatic transformations in the coastal regions of Ganges delta: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
| title_sort | thermal bioclimatic transformations in the coastal regions of ganges delta insights from cmip6 multi model ensemble |
| topic | climate change climate models agricultural production coastal areas productivity biodiversity conservation agriculture resilience sustainability |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176611 |
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