Cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in Nigeria

Climate change threatens smallholder agriculture and food security in the Global South. While cropland expansion is often used to counter adverse climate effects despite ecological trade-offs, the benefits for diets and nutrition remain unclear. This study quantitatively examines relationships betwe...

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Autores principales: Khan, B., Mehta, P., Wei, D., Ali, H., Adeluyi, O., Alabi, T.R., Olayide, O., Uponi, J.I., Davis, K.F.
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2025
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176071
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author Khan, B.
Mehta, P.
Wei, D.
Ali, H.
Adeluyi, O.
Alabi, T.R.
Olayide, O.
Uponi, J.I.
Davis, K.F.
author_browse Adeluyi, O.
Alabi, T.R.
Ali, H.
Davis, K.F.
Khan, B.
Mehta, P.
Olayide, O.
Uponi, J.I.
Wei, D.
author_facet Khan, B.
Mehta, P.
Wei, D.
Ali, H.
Adeluyi, O.
Alabi, T.R.
Olayide, O.
Uponi, J.I.
Davis, K.F.
author_sort Khan, B.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Climate change threatens smallholder agriculture and food security in the Global South. While cropland expansion is often used to counter adverse climate effects despite ecological trade-offs, the benefits for diets and nutrition remain unclear. This study quantitatively examines relationships between climate anomalies, forest loss from cropland expansion, and dietary outcomes in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country. Combining high-resolution data on forest cover and climate variables within random forest and panel regression models, we find that 25 to 31% of annual forest loss is linked to climate variability. Using georeferenced household survey data, we then find that changes in forest cover have a significant positive association with changes in child diet diversity—a key proxy of nutritional adequacy—while cropland expansion does not, suggesting that such forest conversions may be an ineffective climate adaptation strategy for improving nutrition. Our findings highlight the potential of nutrition-sensitive climate adaptation to enhance yields, promote nutritious cropping choices, and protect remaining forests.
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spelling CGSpace1760712025-11-11T10:04:00Z Cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in Nigeria Khan, B. Mehta, P. Wei, D. Ali, H. Adeluyi, O. Alabi, T.R. Olayide, O. Uponi, J.I. Davis, K.F. climate change cropland nigeria forests nutrition security Smallholder farmers Climate change threatens smallholder agriculture and food security in the Global South. While cropland expansion is often used to counter adverse climate effects despite ecological trade-offs, the benefits for diets and nutrition remain unclear. This study quantitatively examines relationships between climate anomalies, forest loss from cropland expansion, and dietary outcomes in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country. Combining high-resolution data on forest cover and climate variables within random forest and panel regression models, we find that 25 to 31% of annual forest loss is linked to climate variability. Using georeferenced household survey data, we then find that changes in forest cover have a significant positive association with changes in child diet diversity—a key proxy of nutritional adequacy—while cropland expansion does not, suggesting that such forest conversions may be an ineffective climate adaptation strategy for improving nutrition. Our findings highlight the potential of nutrition-sensitive climate adaptation to enhance yields, promote nutritious cropping choices, and protect remaining forests. 2025-01-10 2025-08-12T10:27:39Z 2025-08-12T10:27:39Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176071 en Open Access application/pdf American Association for the Advancement of Science Khan, B., Mehta, P., Wei, D., Ali, H.A., Adeluyi, O., Alabi, T., ... & Davis, K.F. (2025). Cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in Nigeria. Science Advances, 11(2): eado5541, 1-11.
spellingShingle climate change
cropland
nigeria
forests
nutrition security
Smallholder farmers
Khan, B.
Mehta, P.
Wei, D.
Ali, H.
Adeluyi, O.
Alabi, T.R.
Olayide, O.
Uponi, J.I.
Davis, K.F.
Cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in Nigeria
title Cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in Nigeria
title_full Cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in Nigeria
title_fullStr Cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in Nigeria
title_full_unstemmed Cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in Nigeria
title_short Cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in Nigeria
title_sort cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in nigeria
topic climate change
cropland
nigeria
forests
nutrition security
Smallholder farmers
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176071
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