A weather-forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease: User-centered design, validation, and scaling in Bangladesh and Brazil
We describe the user-centered design (UCD) of a numerical weather-forecast-driven early warning system (EWS) as a climate service for managing wheat blast, a fungal disease capable of causing complete crop yield losses that is strongly dependent on weather conditions. Our mixed-methods process was g...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175960 |
| _version_ | 1855534855716077568 |
|---|---|
| author | Krupnik, Timothy J. Cunha Fernandes, José Mauricio Vargas, Felipe Medeiros Del Ponte, Emerson Hossain, M. Khaled Kamal, Mustafa Billah, Mutasim Md. Harun-Or-Rashid Hussain, Sk. Ghulam Pawan Kumar Singh Roy, Krishna Kanta Pizolotto, Carlos Augusto Md. Shah Kamal Khan Pavan, Willingthon O. Faruq, Golam |
| author_browse | Billah, Mutasim Cunha Fernandes, José Mauricio Faruq, Golam Hossain, M. Khaled Hussain, Sk. Ghulam Kamal, Mustafa Krupnik, Timothy J. Md. Harun-Or-Rashid Md. Shah Kamal Khan Medeiros Del Ponte, Emerson Pavan, Willingthon O. Pawan Kumar Singh Pizolotto, Carlos Augusto Roy, Krishna Kanta Vargas, Felipe |
| author_facet | Krupnik, Timothy J. Cunha Fernandes, José Mauricio Vargas, Felipe Medeiros Del Ponte, Emerson Hossain, M. Khaled Kamal, Mustafa Billah, Mutasim Md. Harun-Or-Rashid Hussain, Sk. Ghulam Pawan Kumar Singh Roy, Krishna Kanta Pizolotto, Carlos Augusto Md. Shah Kamal Khan Pavan, Willingthon O. Faruq, Golam |
| author_sort | Krupnik, Timothy J. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | We describe the user-centered design (UCD) of a numerical weather-forecast-driven early warning system (EWS) as a climate service for managing wheat blast, a fungal disease capable of causing complete crop yield losses that is strongly dependent on weather conditions. Our mixed-methods process was guided by stakeholder input on the design, testing, and refinement of the EWS from agricultural extension organizations, meteorological departments, and farmers’ groups in Bangladesh and Brazil, where concerns about blast disease risks are high. The UCD process led to a wheat blast disease prediction model, server systems, and user-facing enhancements, including an open-source dashboard (https://beattheblastews.net/) that displays historical, real-time, and forecasted weather data, along with geographically explicit disease predictions, to support informed decision-making on wheat blast management. We describe the back- and front-end design of the dashboard, which supports disease risk forecasting, hindcasting, and the dissemination of early warning advisories co-designed with user organizations. We validated the EWS through comparisons with field observations in both countries. Model results generally agreed with disease incidence records, and model hindcasting confirmed alignment with disease outbreak patterns in Bangladesh and Brazil. Collaboration between agricultural research, meteorological and extension organizations in developing and supplying weather forecasts, disease management advisories, and early warning systems—along with presenting hindcast validation results to stakeholders—led to the formal endorsement of the EWS in both countries. This process also enabled the registration and training of over 14,500 extension officers, lead farmers, and farmers' cooperative members who now receive advisories via email, SMS, agro-meteorological bulletins, smartphone applications, WhatsApp and social media messages. These tools support them in interpreting and sharing wheat blast early warnings with farmers to improve disease preparadness and management actions in both countries. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace175960 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1759602025-10-26T12:56:55Z A weather-forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease: User-centered design, validation, and scaling in Bangladesh and Brazil Krupnik, Timothy J. Cunha Fernandes, José Mauricio Vargas, Felipe Medeiros Del Ponte, Emerson Hossain, M. Khaled Kamal, Mustafa Billah, Mutasim Md. Harun-Or-Rashid Hussain, Sk. Ghulam Pawan Kumar Singh Roy, Krishna Kanta Pizolotto, Carlos Augusto Md. Shah Kamal Khan Pavan, Willingthon O. Faruq, Golam decision support systems early warning systems integrated pest management pyricularia oryzae triticum We describe the user-centered design (UCD) of a numerical weather-forecast-driven early warning system (EWS) as a climate service for managing wheat blast, a fungal disease capable of causing complete crop yield losses that is strongly dependent on weather conditions. Our mixed-methods process was guided by stakeholder input on the design, testing, and refinement of the EWS from agricultural extension organizations, meteorological departments, and farmers’ groups in Bangladesh and Brazil, where concerns about blast disease risks are high. The UCD process led to a wheat blast disease prediction model, server systems, and user-facing enhancements, including an open-source dashboard (https://beattheblastews.net/) that displays historical, real-time, and forecasted weather data, along with geographically explicit disease predictions, to support informed decision-making on wheat blast management. We describe the back- and front-end design of the dashboard, which supports disease risk forecasting, hindcasting, and the dissemination of early warning advisories co-designed with user organizations. We validated the EWS through comparisons with field observations in both countries. Model results generally agreed with disease incidence records, and model hindcasting confirmed alignment with disease outbreak patterns in Bangladesh and Brazil. Collaboration between agricultural research, meteorological and extension organizations in developing and supplying weather forecasts, disease management advisories, and early warning systems—along with presenting hindcast validation results to stakeholders—led to the formal endorsement of the EWS in both countries. This process also enabled the registration and training of over 14,500 extension officers, lead farmers, and farmers' cooperative members who now receive advisories via email, SMS, agro-meteorological bulletins, smartphone applications, WhatsApp and social media messages. These tools support them in interpreting and sharing wheat blast early warnings with farmers to improve disease preparadness and management actions in both countries. 2025-08 2025-08-04T15:29:39Z 2025-08-04T15:29:39Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175960 en Open Access application/pdf Elsevier Krupnik, T. J., Cunha Fernandes, J. M., Vargas, F., Madeiros Del Ponte, E. M., Hossain, M. K., Kamal, M., Billah, M., Harun-Or-Rashid, M., Hussain, S. G., Singh, P. K., Roy, K. K., Pizolotto, C. A., Khan, M. S. K., Pavan, W., & Faruq, G. (2025). A weather-forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease: User-centered design, validation, and scaling in Bangladesh and Brazil. Climate Services, 39, 100589. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100589 |
| spellingShingle | decision support systems early warning systems integrated pest management pyricularia oryzae triticum Krupnik, Timothy J. Cunha Fernandes, José Mauricio Vargas, Felipe Medeiros Del Ponte, Emerson Hossain, M. Khaled Kamal, Mustafa Billah, Mutasim Md. Harun-Or-Rashid Hussain, Sk. Ghulam Pawan Kumar Singh Roy, Krishna Kanta Pizolotto, Carlos Augusto Md. Shah Kamal Khan Pavan, Willingthon O. Faruq, Golam A weather-forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease: User-centered design, validation, and scaling in Bangladesh and Brazil |
| title | A weather-forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease: User-centered design, validation, and scaling in Bangladesh and Brazil |
| title_full | A weather-forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease: User-centered design, validation, and scaling in Bangladesh and Brazil |
| title_fullStr | A weather-forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease: User-centered design, validation, and scaling in Bangladesh and Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed | A weather-forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease: User-centered design, validation, and scaling in Bangladesh and Brazil |
| title_short | A weather-forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease: User-centered design, validation, and scaling in Bangladesh and Brazil |
| title_sort | weather forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease user centered design validation and scaling in bangladesh and brazil |
| topic | decision support systems early warning systems integrated pest management pyricularia oryzae triticum |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175960 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT krupniktimothyj aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT cunhafernandesjosemauricio aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT vargasfelipe aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT medeirosdelponteemerson aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT hossainmkhaled aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT kamalmustafa aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT billahmutasim aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT mdharunorrashid aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT hussainskghulam aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT pawankumarsingh aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT roykrishnakanta aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT pizolottocarlosaugusto aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT mdshahkamalkhan aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT pavanwillingthono aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT faruqgolam aweatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT krupniktimothyj weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT cunhafernandesjosemauricio weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT vargasfelipe weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT medeirosdelponteemerson weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT hossainmkhaled weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT kamalmustafa weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT billahmutasim weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT mdharunorrashid weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT hussainskghulam weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT pawankumarsingh weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT roykrishnakanta weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT pizolottocarlosaugusto weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT mdshahkamalkhan weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT pavanwillingthono weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil AT faruqgolam weatherforecastdrivenearlywarningsystemforwheatblastdiseaseusercentereddesignvalidationandscalinginbangladeshandbrazil |