Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia

The Ethiopian economy relies heavily on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, projections from climate scenarios predict high frequency and intense extreme agro-climatic events, posing significant and growing risks to Ethiopia’s agri-food system...

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Autores principales: Aragie, Emerta A., Gebretsadik, Yohannes, Ringler, Claudia
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Springer 2025
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175603
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author Aragie, Emerta A.
Gebretsadik, Yohannes
Ringler, Claudia
author_browse Aragie, Emerta A.
Gebretsadik, Yohannes
Ringler, Claudia
author_facet Aragie, Emerta A.
Gebretsadik, Yohannes
Ringler, Claudia
author_sort Aragie, Emerta A.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description The Ethiopian economy relies heavily on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, projections from climate scenarios predict high frequency and intense extreme agro-climatic events, posing significant and growing risks to Ethiopia’s agri-food system and overall economy. This study evaluates the economic impacts of recurrent climate shocks on Ethiopia through 2040 and assesses the contribution of alternative investment options in lessening some of these impacts. Findings reveal that recurrent climate shocks could reduce Ethiopia's cumulative GDP by up to 17 percent (or approximately US$ 534.3 billion) by 2040 compared to a “no climate change” baseline. These economic losses are predominantly concentrated in the agricultural sector, disproportionately affecting rural households and poorer urban populations. Strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure and hydroelectricity generation emerge as effective measures to mitigate some of the adverse effects of recurrent climate variability, underscoring the importance of proactive and targeted climate adaptation strategies for Ethiopia's economic resilience. Results further indicate that significantly mitigating the socio-economic impacts of climate and weather shocks requires scaling up investments and diversifying adaptation strategies. The insights derived from this analysis can be informative to economies with similar structures.
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spelling CGSpace1756032025-10-26T13:02:12Z Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia Aragie, Emerta A. Gebretsadik, Yohannes Ringler, Claudia climate change rainfed farming income generation climate change adaptation investment The Ethiopian economy relies heavily on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, projections from climate scenarios predict high frequency and intense extreme agro-climatic events, posing significant and growing risks to Ethiopia’s agri-food system and overall economy. This study evaluates the economic impacts of recurrent climate shocks on Ethiopia through 2040 and assesses the contribution of alternative investment options in lessening some of these impacts. Findings reveal that recurrent climate shocks could reduce Ethiopia's cumulative GDP by up to 17 percent (or approximately US$ 534.3 billion) by 2040 compared to a “no climate change” baseline. These economic losses are predominantly concentrated in the agricultural sector, disproportionately affecting rural households and poorer urban populations. Strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure and hydroelectricity generation emerge as effective measures to mitigate some of the adverse effects of recurrent climate variability, underscoring the importance of proactive and targeted climate adaptation strategies for Ethiopia's economic resilience. Results further indicate that significantly mitigating the socio-economic impacts of climate and weather shocks requires scaling up investments and diversifying adaptation strategies. The insights derived from this analysis can be informative to economies with similar structures. 2025-07 2025-07-10T16:44:32Z 2025-07-10T16:44:32Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175603 en Open Access Springer Aragie, Emerta; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; and Ringler, Claudia. 2025. Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia. Climatic Change 178: 130. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03971-y
spellingShingle climate change
rainfed farming
income generation
climate change adaptation
investment
Aragie, Emerta A.
Gebretsadik, Yohannes
Ringler, Claudia
Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia
title Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia
title_full Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia
title_fullStr Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia
title_short Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in Ethiopia
title_sort modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate shocks in ethiopia
topic climate change
rainfed farming
income generation
climate change adaptation
investment
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175603
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