What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?

Crop pests and diseases (P&D) can cause substantial yield losses and pose a threat to global food security. Losses at a regional level can even exceed 40 percent for crops like maize and rice. Most studies show that a warmer climate creates a conducive, albeit spatially variable, environment for P&...

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Main Authors: Petsakos, Athanasios, Montes, Carlo, Pequeno, Diego, Schiek, Benjamin, Sonder, Kai
Format: Book Chapter
Language:Inglés
Published: International Food Policy Research Institute 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175230
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author Petsakos, Athanasios
Montes, Carlo
Pequeno, Diego
Schiek, Benjamin
Sonder, Kai
author_browse Montes, Carlo
Pequeno, Diego
Petsakos, Athanasios
Schiek, Benjamin
Sonder, Kai
author_facet Petsakos, Athanasios
Montes, Carlo
Pequeno, Diego
Schiek, Benjamin
Sonder, Kai
author_sort Petsakos, Athanasios
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Crop pests and diseases (P&D) can cause substantial yield losses and pose a threat to global food security. Losses at a regional level can even exceed 40 percent for crops like maize and rice. Most studies show that a warmer climate creates a conducive, albeit spatially variable, environment for P&D spread. However, existing foresight research is largely biophysical in nature and focuses on individual pathosystems, examined mostly at the national level. As such, projections of the magnitude of economic impacts of changing patterns of P&D are missing. Global assessment of model-based historical and future P&D impacts on food systems remains constrained by the small number of available models that can estimate yield losses under contrasting climate and agroecological conditions. Efforts are needed to improve data accessibility, model versatility, and simulation platforms and to establish international observation and modeling networks. Artificial intelligence (AI) and related methods can assist in the development of robust and adaptable models to capture the impacts of P&D on food systems.
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spelling CGSpace1752302025-11-06T13:01:03Z What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems? Petsakos, Athanasios Montes, Carlo Pequeno, Diego Schiek, Benjamin Sonder, Kai food systems plant pests plant diseases plant health yield factors climate change yield losses pathogens artificial intelligence modelling Crop pests and diseases (P&D) can cause substantial yield losses and pose a threat to global food security. Losses at a regional level can even exceed 40 percent for crops like maize and rice. Most studies show that a warmer climate creates a conducive, albeit spatially variable, environment for P&D spread. However, existing foresight research is largely biophysical in nature and focuses on individual pathosystems, examined mostly at the national level. As such, projections of the magnitude of economic impacts of changing patterns of P&D are missing. Global assessment of model-based historical and future P&D impacts on food systems remains constrained by the small number of available models that can estimate yield losses under contrasting climate and agroecological conditions. Efforts are needed to improve data accessibility, model versatility, and simulation platforms and to establish international observation and modeling networks. Artificial intelligence (AI) and related methods can assist in the development of robust and adaptable models to capture the impacts of P&D on food systems. 2025-07-21 2025-06-20T19:34:25Z 2025-06-20T19:34:25Z Book Chapter https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175230 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Petsakos, Athanasios; Montes, Carlo; Pequeno, Diego; Schiek, Benjamin; and Sonder, Kai. 2025. What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems? In What do we know about the future of food systems? eds. Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Part One: What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems Drivers and Impacts? Chapter 8, Pp. 45-49. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175230
spellingShingle food systems
plant pests
plant diseases
plant health
yield factors
climate change
yield losses
pathogens
artificial intelligence
modelling
Petsakos, Athanasios
Montes, Carlo
Pequeno, Diego
Schiek, Benjamin
Sonder, Kai
What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?
title What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?
title_full What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?
title_fullStr What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?
title_full_unstemmed What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?
title_short What do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems?
title_sort what do we know about the future of crop pests and diseases in relation to food systems
topic food systems
plant pests
plant diseases
plant health
yield factors
climate change
yield losses
pathogens
artificial intelligence
modelling
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175230
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