Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities
This paper investigates the drivers of export restrictions on agricultural products based on an original dataset developed at IFPRI. We focus on four food price crises when export restrictions (bans, taxes, licenses, etc.) were applied: the 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 food price crises, the COVID‐19 pan...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175165 |
| _version_ | 1855524652931088384 |
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| author | Mamun, Abdullah Laborde Debucquet, David |
| author_browse | Laborde Debucquet, David Mamun, Abdullah |
| author_facet | Mamun, Abdullah Laborde Debucquet, David |
| author_sort | Mamun, Abdullah |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper investigates the drivers of export restrictions on agricultural products based on an original dataset developed at IFPRI. We focus on four food price crises when export restrictions (bans, taxes, licenses, etc.) were applied: the 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 food price crises, the COVID‐19 pandemic, and the 2022 crisis associated with the Russia–Ukraine war. Although the justifications for such trade policies have been discussed in the literature, the ability to forecast their implementation remains understudied. The probit model used in this study suggests that the inflation rate has a higher power to predict export restrictions than do international commodity prices. The probability of export restrictions increases more when price changes are measured from a reference level in the long term than in the short term. Among the covariates, agricultural land per capita, the commodity's share in total production, and weather conditions increase the chances of imposing export restrictions. Population density, share of agriculture in GDP, urbanization rate, and political economy indicators all have a negative influence on the likelihood of export controls. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace175165 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1751652025-12-11T21:54:48Z Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities Mamun, Abdullah Laborde Debucquet, David international trade trade trade liberalization exports inflation export controls foods This paper investigates the drivers of export restrictions on agricultural products based on an original dataset developed at IFPRI. We focus on four food price crises when export restrictions (bans, taxes, licenses, etc.) were applied: the 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 food price crises, the COVID‐19 pandemic, and the 2022 crisis associated with the Russia–Ukraine war. Although the justifications for such trade policies have been discussed in the literature, the ability to forecast their implementation remains understudied. The probit model used in this study suggests that the inflation rate has a higher power to predict export restrictions than do international commodity prices. The probability of export restrictions increases more when price changes are measured from a reference level in the long term than in the short term. Among the covariates, agricultural land per capita, the commodity's share in total production, and weather conditions increase the chances of imposing export restrictions. Population density, share of agriculture in GDP, urbanization rate, and political economy indicators all have a negative influence on the likelihood of export controls. 2025-11 2025-06-18T17:55:11Z 2025-06-18T17:55:11Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175165 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140687 Limited Access Wiley Mamun, Abdullah; and Laborde Debucquet, David. 2025. Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities. Agricultural Economics 56(6): 905-923. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70041 |
| spellingShingle | international trade trade trade liberalization exports inflation export controls foods Mamun, Abdullah Laborde Debucquet, David Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title | Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title_full | Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title_fullStr | Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title_full_unstemmed | Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title_short | Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title_sort | role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| topic | international trade trade trade liberalization exports inflation export controls foods |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175165 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mamunabdullah roleofinternationalpriceanddomesticinflationintriggeringexportrestrictionsonfoodcommodities AT labordedebucquetdavid roleofinternationalpriceanddomesticinflationintriggeringexportrestrictionsonfoodcommodities |