Weathering conflict: The effect of resource shocks on livestock raids
We examine the impact of climate shocks and drought insurance on inter-communal pastoral conflict in Kenya and Ethiopia. Using NASA’s eMODIS satellite data on pasture availability and a 40-season longitudinal household dataset, our findings highlight the dual role of pasture scarcity and pasture abu...
| Autores principales: | , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
University of Oxford Centre for the Study of African Economies
2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175107 |
| _version_ | 1855534241367982080 |
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| author | Jensen, Nathaniel D. López-Rivas, Jose D. Morsink, Karlijn Rikken, Emma E. |
| author_browse | Jensen, Nathaniel D. López-Rivas, Jose D. Morsink, Karlijn Rikken, Emma E. |
| author_facet | Jensen, Nathaniel D. López-Rivas, Jose D. Morsink, Karlijn Rikken, Emma E. |
| author_sort | Jensen, Nathaniel D. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | We examine the impact of climate shocks and drought insurance on inter-communal pastoral conflict in Kenya and Ethiopia. Using NASA’s eMODIS satellite data on pasture availability and a 40-season longitudinal household dataset, our findings highlight the dual role of pasture scarcity and pasture abundance in driving conflict, contingent on seasonal timing. Negative shocks leading to pasture scarcity increase conflict in dry seasons, while positive shocks that lead to pasture abundance fuel conflict in subsequent rainy seasons. Leveraging exogenous variation in drought insurance, we find that while insurance reduces conflict on average, this masks important heterogeneity. Ex post indemnity payments mitigate conflict during droughts, but ex ante insurance coverage exacerbates conflict when pasture is abundant in rainy seasons. These findings highlight the dual relationship between resource availability and conflict, and the importance of considering the impact of policy interventions in this light. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace175107 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | University of Oxford Centre for the Study of African Economies |
| publisherStr | University of Oxford Centre for the Study of African Economies |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1751072026-01-25T12:03:17Z Weathering conflict: The effect of resource shocks on livestock raids Jensen, Nathaniel D. López-Rivas, Jose D. Morsink, Karlijn Rikken, Emma E. drought livestock insurance pastoralism rangelands conflict We examine the impact of climate shocks and drought insurance on inter-communal pastoral conflict in Kenya and Ethiopia. Using NASA’s eMODIS satellite data on pasture availability and a 40-season longitudinal household dataset, our findings highlight the dual role of pasture scarcity and pasture abundance in driving conflict, contingent on seasonal timing. Negative shocks leading to pasture scarcity increase conflict in dry seasons, while positive shocks that lead to pasture abundance fuel conflict in subsequent rainy seasons. Leveraging exogenous variation in drought insurance, we find that while insurance reduces conflict on average, this masks important heterogeneity. Ex post indemnity payments mitigate conflict during droughts, but ex ante insurance coverage exacerbates conflict when pasture is abundant in rainy seasons. These findings highlight the dual relationship between resource availability and conflict, and the importance of considering the impact of policy interventions in this light. 2025-03 2025-06-16T17:00:24Z 2025-06-16T17:00:24Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175107 en Open Access application/pdf University of Oxford Centre for the Study of African Economies Jensen, N.D., Lopez-Rivas, J., Morsink, K., and Rikken, E. 2025. Weathering conflict: The effect of resource shocks on livestock raids. CSAE Working Paper 2025-02. Oxford: University of Oxford Centre for the Study of African Economies. |
| spellingShingle | drought livestock insurance pastoralism rangelands conflict Jensen, Nathaniel D. López-Rivas, Jose D. Morsink, Karlijn Rikken, Emma E. Weathering conflict: The effect of resource shocks on livestock raids |
| title | Weathering conflict: The effect of resource shocks on livestock raids |
| title_full | Weathering conflict: The effect of resource shocks on livestock raids |
| title_fullStr | Weathering conflict: The effect of resource shocks on livestock raids |
| title_full_unstemmed | Weathering conflict: The effect of resource shocks on livestock raids |
| title_short | Weathering conflict: The effect of resource shocks on livestock raids |
| title_sort | weathering conflict the effect of resource shocks on livestock raids |
| topic | drought livestock insurance pastoralism rangelands conflict |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175107 |
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