Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorgh...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
National Academy of Sciences
2025
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175093 |
| _version_ | 1855518266236076032 |
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| author | Ittersum, Martin K. van Alimagham, Seyyedmajid Silva, João Vasco Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Baijukya, Frederick P. Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Grassini, Patricio de Groot, Hugo L.E. Nshizirungu, Aphrodis Mahamane Soulé, Abdelkader Sulser, Timothy B. Taulya, Godfrey Amor Tenorio, Fatima Tesfaye, Kindie Yuan, Shen van Loon, Marloes P. |
| author_browse | Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Alimagham, Seyyedmajid Amor Tenorio, Fatima Baijukya, Frederick P. Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Grassini, Patricio Ittersum, Martin K. van Mahamane Soulé, Abdelkader Nshizirungu, Aphrodis Silva, João Vasco Sulser, Timothy B. Taulya, Godfrey Tesfaye, Kindie Yuan, Shen de Groot, Hugo L.E. van Loon, Marloes P. |
| author_facet | Ittersum, Martin K. van Alimagham, Seyyedmajid Silva, João Vasco Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Baijukya, Frederick P. Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Grassini, Patricio de Groot, Hugo L.E. Nshizirungu, Aphrodis Mahamane Soulé, Abdelkader Sulser, Timothy B. Taulya, Godfrey Amor Tenorio, Fatima Tesfaye, Kindie Yuan, Shen van Loon, Marloes P. |
| author_sort | Ittersum, Martin K. van |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha−1 y−1 is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace175093 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| publisherStr | National Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1750932025-10-26T12:55:15Z Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa Ittersum, Martin K. van Alimagham, Seyyedmajid Silva, João Vasco Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Baijukya, Frederick P. Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Grassini, Patricio de Groot, Hugo L.E. Nshizirungu, Aphrodis Mahamane Soulé, Abdelkader Sulser, Timothy B. Taulya, Godfrey Amor Tenorio, Fatima Tesfaye, Kindie Yuan, Shen van Loon, Marloes P. cereals self-sufficiency crop yield food supply climate change yield potential Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha−1 y−1 is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy. 2025-06-17 2025-06-13T18:50:28Z 2025-06-13T18:50:28Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175093 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148953 Open Access National Academy of Sciences Ittersum, Martin K. van; Alimagham, Seyyedmajid; Silva, João Vasco; Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel; Baijukya, Frederick P.; et al. 2025. Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122(24): e2423669122. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2423669122 |
| spellingShingle | cereals self-sufficiency crop yield food supply climate change yield potential Ittersum, Martin K. van Alimagham, Seyyedmajid Silva, João Vasco Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel Baijukya, Frederick P. Bala, Abdullahi Chikowo, Regis Grassini, Patricio de Groot, Hugo L.E. Nshizirungu, Aphrodis Mahamane Soulé, Abdelkader Sulser, Timothy B. Taulya, Godfrey Amor Tenorio, Fatima Tesfaye, Kindie Yuan, Shen van Loon, Marloes P. Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title | Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full | Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_fullStr | Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_short | Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_sort | prospects for cereal self sufficiency in sub saharan africa |
| topic | cereals self-sufficiency crop yield food supply climate change yield potential |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175093 |
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