Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments
Regional and global economic models, combined with spatially distributed crop growth simulation models and hydrology models that simulate water supply and demand across sectors (among others), represent the most widely used quantitative approach for addressing questions related to food security unde...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Springer
2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174926 |
| _version_ | 1855533541046091776 |
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| author | Petsakos, Athanasios Montes, Carlo Falck-Zepeda, José B. Pequeno, Diego Noleto Luz Schiek, Benjamin Gotor, Elisabetta |
| author_browse | Falck-Zepeda, José B. Gotor, Elisabetta Montes, Carlo Pequeno, Diego Noleto Luz Petsakos, Athanasios Schiek, Benjamin |
| author_facet | Petsakos, Athanasios Montes, Carlo Falck-Zepeda, José B. Pequeno, Diego Noleto Luz Schiek, Benjamin Gotor, Elisabetta |
| author_sort | Petsakos, Athanasios |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Regional and global economic models, combined with spatially distributed crop growth simulation models and hydrology models that simulate water supply and demand across sectors (among others), represent the most widely used quantitative approach for addressing questions related to food security under alternative future scenarios (e.g., for a recent reference, van Dijk et al., 2021). These integrated foresight modelling approaches, hereinafter referred to as “Agricultural Integrated Assessment Models” (AIAMs), provide a macro-level view of the global food system, encompassing, directly or indirectly, implicitly or explicitly, components outlined in contemporary definitions (HLPE, 2017). Due to the complex nature of modelling the effects of crop pests and pathogens (P&P) on crop performances, the use of AIAMs in P&P-related analyses has been scant and limited to hypothetical epidemics caused by specific P&Ps affecting a single crop (Godfray et al., 2016; Petsakos et al., 2023). This limitation, also identified in the ex-ante assessment of the pesticide reduction objective of the European Common Agricultural Policy (Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021), suggests that AIAMs overlook a critical element – one that has historically contributed to, or even triggered, famine events (Padmanabhan, 1973; Woodham-Smith, 1992). Given the importance of AIAMs in informing policies and shaping agricultural decisions at national and global scales (e.g., Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021; Fuglie et al., 2022), it is necessary to adress this gap. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace174926 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1749262025-12-09T20:53:22Z Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments Petsakos, Athanasios Montes, Carlo Falck-Zepeda, José B. Pequeno, Diego Noleto Luz Schiek, Benjamin Gotor, Elisabetta agriculture economics food security pathogens Regional and global economic models, combined with spatially distributed crop growth simulation models and hydrology models that simulate water supply and demand across sectors (among others), represent the most widely used quantitative approach for addressing questions related to food security under alternative future scenarios (e.g., for a recent reference, van Dijk et al., 2021). These integrated foresight modelling approaches, hereinafter referred to as “Agricultural Integrated Assessment Models” (AIAMs), provide a macro-level view of the global food system, encompassing, directly or indirectly, implicitly or explicitly, components outlined in contemporary definitions (HLPE, 2017). Due to the complex nature of modelling the effects of crop pests and pathogens (P&P) on crop performances, the use of AIAMs in P&P-related analyses has been scant and limited to hypothetical epidemics caused by specific P&Ps affecting a single crop (Godfray et al., 2016; Petsakos et al., 2023). This limitation, also identified in the ex-ante assessment of the pesticide reduction objective of the European Common Agricultural Policy (Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021), suggests that AIAMs overlook a critical element – one that has historically contributed to, or even triggered, famine events (Padmanabhan, 1973; Woodham-Smith, 1992). Given the importance of AIAMs in informing policies and shaping agricultural decisions at national and global scales (e.g., Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021; Fuglie et al., 2022), it is necessary to adress this gap. 2025-08 2025-06-03T13:08:28Z 2025-06-03T13:08:28Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174926 en Open Access Springer Petsakos, Athanasios; Montes, Carlo; Falck-Zepeda, José; Pequeno, Diego Noleto Luz; Schiek, Benjamin; and Gotor, Elisabetta. 2025. Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments. Food Security 17(4): 979-984. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-025-01549-1 |
| spellingShingle | agriculture economics food security pathogens Petsakos, Athanasios Montes, Carlo Falck-Zepeda, José B. Pequeno, Diego Noleto Luz Schiek, Benjamin Gotor, Elisabetta Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments |
| title | Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments |
| title_full | Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments |
| title_fullStr | Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments |
| title_short | Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments |
| title_sort | bridging the gap integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments |
| topic | agriculture economics food security pathogens |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174926 |
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