| Summary: | Honduras faces a complex interplay of climate impacts and security
challenges that are deeply intertwined with and mediated by its
structural vulnerabilities. The country has long grappled with
fragility, violence, and institutional challenges and constraints,
often represented in the form of high levels of crime, gang
violence, socio-environmental conflicts and gender-based violence.
These security issues are rooted in longstanding inequalities, social
exclusion, poverty, limited state presence, and unequal access to
natural resources.
In parallel, Honduras is increasingly exposed and highly vulnerable
to climate change impacts. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall,
prolonged droughts, and severe tropical storms, such as Mitch
(1998), Eta and Iota (2020), Julia (2022), and Sara (2024), are
disrupting ecosystems and causing widespread socioeconomic
losses. For instance, the Central American Dry Corridor, which
includes large parts of Southern and Western Honduras,
experiences increasingly severe droughts, including the most
recent events associated with the 2023–2024 El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENOS). These changes are undermining water
availability, agricultural productivity, and the health of forest and
marine resources, with particularly severe impacts on rural and
marginalized populations.
This report addresses the question of how the interconnected
dynamics of climate, peace and security interplay in Honduras by
exploring five interrelated pathways through which climate impacts
are shaping conflict and cooperation dynamics in the country,
highlighting the urgent need to integrate climate, peace and
security considerations into integrated development planning,
governance strengthening, and risk-informed governance
strategies. The five climate, peace and security pathways developed
in this report include:
1. Climate change impacts on natural resource availability
and access drive competition or foster cooperation: Climate
change is intensifying pressure on water, land, forest, and marine
resources in Honduras. When access is profoundly unequal and
governance is weak, these pressures often fuel social tensions and
conflict, particularly in regions affected by extractive industries,
land grabbing dynamics, and environmental degradation. However,
where community leadership, inclusive governance, and collective
management exist, climate stressors can also drive cooperation
and strengthen resilience. From local water committees to
agroforestry initiatives and coastal conservation efforts, Honduran
communities are navigating scarcity and reduced availability of
resources through both contestation and collaboration,
highlighting the critical role of inclusive governance and equitable
access in shaping resource-based responses to climate impacts.
2. Climate change impacts undermine livelihoods, leading to
collective action for adaptation or fostering illegal and
maladaptive coping mechanisms: Climate change impacts
undermine traditional livelihoods in Honduras, particularly
smallholder agriculture and artisanal fishing, causing reduced crop
yields and fish catches leading to lower incomes and food
insecurity. This pressure drives individuals and households toward
two coping mechanisms: collective adaptation, or maladaptive and
illegal strategies. Positive responses include initiatives such as
climate-smart agriculture, agroecology, watershed restoration and
co-management, or livelihood diversification, often supported by
community organization and capacity building. However, in fragile
and violence affected contexts, some individuals resort to illegal
activities such as illicit crop cultivation, illegal logging, child labor,
or direct confrontation in public demonstrations and protests,
increasing exposure to violence and insecurity. Gender and youth face disproportionate impacts, while insecurity and conflict
frequently hinder collective adaptation efforts.
3. Climate change influences human mobility patterns,
fostering adaptive capacities or exacerbating social tensions
and human security risks: Climate impacts influence human
mobility in Honduras, sometimes serving as an effective adaptive
strategy but also often carrying risks of human insecurity and
social tensions. Individuals and families move internally and
internationally to move away from climate shocks and pressures
like droughts and extreme weather events, seeking less vulnerable
places with better livelihoods, resources, and personal security.
When human mobility is planned and safe, it supports resilience
and development by enabling the flow of remittances, knowledge
and skills, as well as by guaranteeing safe spaces for migrants and
IDPs. However, unplanned or unsafe human mobility can intensify
vulnerabilities and risks in transit and destination areas, fueling
social tensions, exposing individuals to security risks, and
increasing climate vulnerability.
4. Extreme weather events, along with government
preparedness and response, influence institutional
capacities, governance and political legitimacy, positively or
negatively: Inclusive, timely, and locally coordinated disaster risk
reduction strategies in Honduras can be an opportunity to build
horizontal and vertical trust, strengthen institutions, and reinforce
social cohesion. Conversely, exclusionary, top-down, or poorly
coordinated responses often expose governance weaknesses,
deepen inequalities, and erode public confidence, fueling
grievances and social tensions. In Honduras, extreme weather
events have revealed both the fragility of public institutions as well
as the potential for institutional strengthening and legitimacy when
responses actively engage communities and address their structural vulnerabilities. As climate shocks increase, investing in
participatory and locally grounded governance is essential to foster
resilience, legitimacy, and social cohesion.
5. The unintended consequences of poorly designed climate
and security policies lead to further risks: Climate adaptation
and mitigation efforts that ignore local land rights or exclude
indigenous and peasant communities from their design and
implementation often spark resistance and deepen conflicts.
Similarly, militarized responses to climate and environmental risks
may worsen existing grievances and erode trust between
communities and public institutions. When climate and security
interventions are developed separately and without considering
local contexts and needs/demands as well as power dynamics, they
risk reinforcing inequalities and social tensions. To avoid these
negative outcomes, policies must be coherent, participatory, and
conflict-sensitive—integrating local knowledge and addressing
structural vulnerabilities.
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